The economic consequences of Labour – the story so far
- Growth toward the end of last year was bound to be slow-to-no; and so it proved
- Before the election, recession looked likely. After the Budget, it was becoming pretty certain
- Why are we stuck with more government, more tax, more regulation whatever the party in power?
The end of this week, one in which we have had both the Chancellor‘s Spring Statement, and the second reading of the awful Employment Rights Bill in the Lords, offers a useful moment to take pause and look back over what economic plans Labour have managed to put into play so far; what economic effect their actions have had; and what we can expect to happen in the coming months and years.
We can expect nothing good is the message, but the whole piece is well worth reading as a reminder that expecting nothing good from this Labour government is a rational expectation.
So, what will be the economic consequences of Labour? Four years or more to go before the next election. Will the size of government be slashed? I wouldn’t gamble on it. Will taxes be reduced? It’s not in their DNA. And regulation? Much of the barrier to building houses in the UK is the enormous cost of being required to provide 50% of build in social (i.e. zero profit) housing. Is reducing that number a nettle the Chancellor is prepared to grasp? Will the Government dump the ludicrous Football Regulator bill; be prepared to abolish Diversity, Equity, Inclusion across the public sector, as has been done in the US? Will Ed Miliband be fired and the more egregious of the net zero regulations and costs be rolled back? Will we finally realise we can’t go on having the highest electricity costs in Europe, and cease the egregious renewables subsidies?
We can hope for all this, but I doubt that much of it will come to pass. Most likely, the current pattern of talking good stuff and doing bad stuff will continue. In which case, things can only get worse; and we are on our way, some time in the next few years, to Labour’s next IMF moment. Oh dear.
So, what will be the economic consequences of Labour? Four years or more to go before the next election. Will the size of government be slashed? I wouldn’t gamble on it. Will taxes be reduced? It’s not in their DNA. And regulation? Much of the barrier to building houses in the UK is the enormous cost of being required to provide 50% of build in social (i.e. zero profit) housing. Is reducing that number a nettle the Chancellor is prepared to grasp? Will the Government dump the ludicrous Football Regulator bill; be prepared to abolish Diversity, Equity, Inclusion across the public sector, as has been done in the US? Will Ed Miliband be fired and the more egregious of the net zero regulations and costs be rolled back? Will we finally realise we can’t go on having the highest electricity costs in Europe, and cease the egregious renewables subsidies?
We can hope for all this, but I doubt that much of it will come to pass. Most likely, the current pattern of talking good stuff and doing bad stuff will continue. In which case, things can only get worse; and we are on our way, some time in the next few years, to Labour’s next IMF moment. Oh dear.
7 comments:
When we go to the IMF with our begging bowl, they are very likely to say that the type of help they give will be tied to how closely we re-align with Europe. There's more collateral in a continent. And then, not wanting to suffer any more decline and deprivation, the Brits will agree, so as to guarantee that their children are educated and the rubbish is collected, and the NHS remains "the envy of the world".
And we still won't know whether Starmer had it all planned from the beginning, or whether he is a bungling student politician.
Should we move on to an IMF moment there will be plenty of pundits making the excuse that "we didn't really need it last time", still blaming the "Conservative £22 billion black hole" or even "Thatcher".
But excuses (the go to methodology for politicians) butter no parsnips. When you find yourself digging a hole, stop digging. Even if your die hard supporters are shouting "Deeper, deeper!".
Sam - planned from the beginning by a bungling student politician in my view, although Starmer isn't on his own. I have a part completed blog post on it, although it doesn't say much more than the obvious.
Influential student politicians, student civil servants and student NGO executives have certain bungling attitudes in common which are in effect plans. Starmer is the stooge to enact them, but he'll be okay, they all will. Bungling attitudes without consequences for the bunglers.
Apparently the govt is going to take an axe to Ninja swords. Or perhaps they are going to take a sword to Ninja axes. It's so hard to keep up with their tergiversations.
DJ - yes there are always excuses and politicians have honed their ability to find and employ them. It could be said that ours is an excuse culture, which in many ways it is. A refusal to resort to excuses has always been an aspect of honesty as we know, but now we teach the excuse as a social skill. Labour certainly does.
dearieme - oh dear, what a bunch of nutters rule o'er us. Maybe we should hide the miner's pick used down the local pit by Mrs H's great grandfather.
I annoy my wife by stating that all new housing is "affordable". There are never any left unsold. QED.
Or ipso facto.
Doonhamer - it's surprising what people will buy too. Next to the A38 - no problem.
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