The media myth of the Badenoch bounce

Niall Gooch has a useful Critic piece on the media circus surrounding UK politics and Conservative attempts to boost voter approval of Kemi Badenoch. 


The media myth of the Badenoch bounce

Kemi Badenoch has had stronger performances but Conservative triumphalism is premature

In Britain, the traditional media’s coverage of politics relies heavily on an endless merry-go-round of stock stories — the wacky rigmarole, as it is sometimes derisively referred to online. There is the “gaffe”, so-called, when a politician tells the truth at a place or time they were not meant to. There is good old-fashioned sleaze, usually financial. Sexual misadventures at Westminster used to be a tabloid favourite, but such reports are becoming rarer, due to changing social attitudes and the various shots fired across the bows of a free press by a censorious establishment. Backbench plots against party leaders, real or imagined, keep the circus rolling on for a few news cycles, as do rumours about chaotic scenes in 10 Downing Street or yet another round of shady briefings about some minister’s inability to manage their civil service underlings.

Then of course we have the “bounce”, i.e. a putative increase in popularity for some individual or their party, usually said to have followed a change of leadership or a big speech or some exciting new announcement, or even a series of strong performances in the House of Commons.

The whole piece is well worth reading as the embarrassing shabbiness of UK politics seems to have become a feature rather than a temporary difficulty.

It is quite possible, given the volatility of the British political scene, that in a year or two’s time the Tories will be recovering strongly in the polls. The Burnham honeymoon will be over by the spring, with a looming fuel crisis, high energy costs, and very little fiscal headroom for the government. But the Tories being the beneficiary of Labour’s looming troubles is far from guaranteed. They are still viewed with suspicion and hostility by great swathes of the electorate, not least on the right. Despite the leadership’s big talk about lessons learned, and their robust rhetoric on key issues like national identity and crime, there remains an influential liberal faction within the party, which will attempt to derail any serious attempt to unpick the Blairite settlement by, for example, repeal of the Equality Act or the Human Rights Act. Badenoch can talk a good game and build a strong personal brand, but talk of a bounce is misleading at best given that, if an election were called tomorrow, the Tories would struggle to hold on to their historically low tally of 118 seats.

Report finds that a disturbing number of scientists may not be incompetent

Scientists who put faith in technology less likely to take climate action

‘Techno-optimism’ may lead to reliance on unproven solutions at expense of societal changes needed

Scientists who believe technology will largely solve the problems caused by the climate crisis are less likely to engage in civic action on the issue, according to a study.

The report from the London School of Economics found they are 23% less likely to sign petitions or take part in protests than peers who doubt that technology is the answer. They are also 18% less likely to make high-impact lifestyle changes, from reducing flights to changing to a vegan or vegetarian diet...

The study surveyed more than 9,000 scientists across 115 countries. Overall 27% said they agreed with the statement “technology will largely solve the problems caused by climate change” and 44% disagreed (29% neither agreed nor disagreed).


“Listen, Stavrogin. To level the mountains is a fine idea, not an absurd one. I am for Shigalov. Down with culture. We’ve had enough science! Without science we have material enough to go on for a thousand years, but one must have discipline. The one thing wanting in the world is discipline. The thirst for culture is an aristocratic thirst. The moment you have family ties or love you get the desire for property. We will destroy that desire; we’ll make use of drunkenness, slander, spying; we’ll make use of incredible corruption; we’ll stifle every genius in its infancy. We’ll reduce all to a common denominator! Complete equality!

Fyodor Dostoyevsky – Demons (1871-72)

Almost the equivalent of believing in the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy

Robert Bradley Jr has an interesting MasterResource piece on Bill McKibben's desperate efforts to preserve the purity of decarbonization doctrine in the US. 

Worth reading, especially as Ed Miliband has been side-lined here in the UK.


‘Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future’ (trade group under fire)

“Bill McKibben is desperate. Instead of accepting reality, he continues his magical thinking of wind and solar dominance. But as James Hansen, the father of the alarm, stated: ‘Suggesting that renewables will let us phase rapidly off fossil fuels in the United States, China, India, or the world as a whole is almost the equivalent of believing in the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy’.”

It’s an old story in the futile, wasteful decarbonization effort. Should natural gas be part of the solution, displacing diesel oil and coal in home heating and power generation? Or should natural gas be condemned as a “fossil fuel” just like oil and coal. Enter Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future, a trade/lobbying group espousing “Our Path to a Clean Energy Future.”

Their tag line reads: “Climate progress, along with energy affordability and reliability, starts with renewables and natural gas working together.” But the climate activists want little to do with this pitch...

The dash-to-gas is on despite the gas turbine shortage from the misdirection of production of industrial wind turbines. Bill McKibben is desperate. Instead of accepting reality, he continues his magical thinking of wind and solar dominance. But as James Hansen, the father of the alarm, stated:

Suggesting that renewables will let us phase rapidly off fossil fuels in the United States, China, India, or the world as a whole is almost the equivalent of believing in the Easter Bunny and Tooth Fairy.

Tories pledge

Tories pledge to build 'iron dome' to stop drones and missiles

The Tories have pledged to invest £10 billion in creating a new “iron dome” aimed at defending Britain and its overseas bases in the event of future attacks.

The so-called “Britannia Shield” would provide a network of radar, command and control systems to detect incoming threats along with interceptor missiles and counter-drone capabilities, the Conservatives said.


"Tories pledge..." For most people there is never any need to read beyond these two words, reading something more plausible is far more rewarding. Apart from the Guardian of course, but that's an extreme example.

Or just nip off and make a coffee, anything constructive will do. There is a similar issue with -

• Labour pledges...
• Lib Dems pledge...
• Greens pledge...
• SNP pledges...

And so on.

Wake-up call

Almost half of people in hygiene poverty have gone without toilet roll

Almost one in five adults in the UK have gone without household hygiene products such as deodorant and toilet paper, according to new research described by charities as "a wake-up call".

Social isolation has also emerged as a significant consequence, with 43 per cent of those polled admitting they avoided seeing friends or family because they could not afford basic hygiene or cleaning products in the past six months.

The survey, published by charities The Hygiene Bank and In Kind Direct, revealed that 41 per cent of respondents experiencing hygiene poverty were doing so for the first time this year.


Described by charities as "a wake-up call" - wake up and smell the coffee? 

No that's not right, but it's easy to dismiss this kind of thing as virtue-signalling exaggeration...

So I shall.

And the answer is... Thousands of new civil servants

Government to create specialist insourcing unit

As one of Whitehall’s biggest departments reveals the insourcing of services, creating thousands of new civil servants, ministers have unveiled plans for a dedicated team to promote accountability and value

An insourcing unit will be launched within the Office for the Prime Minister and Cabinet, ministers have announced.

The unit will be tasked with coordinating departmental insourcing activity, unblocking barriers to delivery, and identifying cross-government opportunities to maximise value for money and restore direct operational accountability. First secretary of state Louise Haigh said the unit will also help to reduce spending on consultancy and professionals services, by building civil service talent and resources.

He had left the civil service as casually as he had entered it, because, when he had had time to consider his position, he came to the conclusion that the service is not an aim in itself, but merely a means to bring together a number of men who would otherwise have had no justification for their existence. If these men had not existed, the posts which they filled need never have been created.

Ivan Goncharov - The Precipice (1869)

Greenland Meltdown Scam