Britain is going bankrupt in slow motion

Daniel Herring has a useful CAPX piece on the unsustainable nature of UK debt.


Britain is going bankrupt in slow motion

• The OBR says UK debt is on course to hit 300% of GDP by 2075
• If politicians wait until 2052 to act, the spending cuts needed more than double
• Sooner or later, taxes rise, spending falls or growth accelerates – duck all three, and we face fiscal catastrophe

The OBR’s latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report, published this week, gives a blunt assessment of the UK’s public finances: we can’t go on like this. If nothing changes, government debt will rise to an unsustainable 300% of GDP in 50 years’ time.

How did things get so bad? Well, there’s one big demographic challenge driving that number: the UK is an ageing society, with the median age projected to rise from 40 in 2025 to 49 in 2075. An older society is expensive; as each year passes, demands on the state by retirees gets larger, while the workforce that has to pay for it all gets smaller (first in relative terms, and eventually in absolute terms as well).


A familiar problem but the whole piece is still well worth reading as a reminder that this one isn't going away if voters continue to vote for political parties with no interest in resolving it. The political fads, environmental fantasies and antiquated ideologies we are still seeing today won't do it.

But we already know that.


The OBR report highlights the challenges an ageing population poses for the UK: sooner or later, taxes rise, spending falls or growth accelerates – duck all three, and we go bankrupt. How painful the correction turns out to be remains a political choice.

The UK is sick – but far from terminal. It needs medicine now: cuts to public spending, less reliance on the state and a relentless focus on growth. Prompt action will restore a healthy economy and sound public finances. Waiting will make things much worse.

Old Style Driving

This morning Mrs H and I buzzed off to the local garden centre in the MX5.

No driving in a closed box with the air-conditioning on, but old style driving on quiet roads. Top down, windows down, elbow on the door with the breeze blowing up my shirt sleeve. As Mrs H said, this is how roads ought to be.

The Price of 5 A Day

In early July, Shimeon Lee had a useful TPA piece on a Zack Polanski claim about food prices in 2050. 

To the surprise of nobody but Green voters, the claim turns out to be worthless. Worth reading but yet again it does raise an example of the perennial issue - why is rational voting such a forlorn hope? 


A closer look at "The Price of 5 A Day?

Green Party leader Zack Polanski recently made the alarming claim that the price of fresh fruits and vegetables is set to rise 170 per cent by 2050, making them “unaffordable” for many households. This figure comes from a report by the Autonomy Institute, a progressive research organisation, and has already been used to support calls for more climate spending, a higher minimum wage, increased welfare and unprecedented interventions like price caps.

But what is actually behind the 170 per cent figure, and does it really show that fruits and vegetables are about to move beyond the reach of ordinary families? Unsurprisingly, the claim does not stand up to scrutiny. This edition of a closer look examines how this figure has been calculated and what’s wrong with it.

Not when you want just power

A quote from  Kangaroo, a 1923 novel by  D. H. Lawrence set in Australia and said to be strongly autobiographical - 

He was silent for a while.

“Now,” he said slowly. “Now I see that you don’t have only to give all your possessions to the poor. You’ve got to have no poor that can be saved just by possessions. You’ve got to put the control of all supplies into the hands of sincere, sensible men who are still men enough to know that manhood isn’t the same thing as goods. We don’t want possessions. Nobody wants possessions—more than just the immediate things: as you say yourself, one trunk for you, one for me, and one for the household goods. That’s about all. We don’t want anything else. And the world is ours—Australia or India, Coo-ee or Ardnaree, or where you like. You have got to teach people that, by withholding possessions and stopping the mere frenzy for possession which runs the world to-day. You’ve got to do that first, not last.”

“And you think Jack Callcott will do it?”

“I did think so, as he talked to me.”

“Well, then let him. Why do you want to interfere. In my opinion he’s chiefly jealous because other people run the show, and he doesn’t have a look-in. Having once been a Captain with some power, he wants the same again, and more. I’d rather trust William James to be disinterested.”

“Nay, Jack Callcott is generous by nature, and I believe he’d be disinterested.”

“In his way, he’s generous. But that isn’t the same as being disinterested, for all that. He wants to have his finger in the pie, that’s what he wants.”

“To pull out plums? That’s not true.”

“Perhaps not to pull out money plums. But to be bossy. To be a Captain once more, feeling his feet and being a boss over something.”

“Why shouldn’t he be?”

“Why not? I don’t care if he bosses all Australia and New Zealand and all the lot. But I don’t see why you should call it disinterested. Because it isn’t.”

He paused, struck.

“Am I disinterested?” he asked.

“Not”—she hesitated—“not when you want just power.”


D. H. Lawrence - Kangaroo (1923)

UC Berkeley Joins Forces With Nancy Pelosi

Lloyd Billingsley has a useful American Spectator piece on Nancy Pelosi and the modestly named Nancy Pelosi Institute for Representative Democracy (NPI).

The whole piece is well worth reading, including the linked piece Pelosi’s Favorite Stalinist.

UC Berkeley Joins Forces With Nancy Pelosi

Presenting the ‘nonpartisan’ Nancy Pelosi Institute for Representative Democracy (NPI).

Nancy Pelosi is the daughter of Thomas D’Alesandro, a Baltimore mayor and member of Congress. He passed away in 1987, the year Nancy first ran for Congress in California, representing part of San Francisco. In the Congressional Record in 2001, Rep. Pelosi praised Harry Bridges as “the most significant labor leader of the twentieth century” and “beloved by the workers of this nation.” For all but the willfully blind, he wasn’t.

As Joshua Muravchik noted in “Pelosi’s Favorite Stalinist” article, Bridges’ membership in the Communist Party had been revealed a full nine years before Pelosi’s encomium. Bridges was a Stalinist thug dedicated to the Soviet Union, a Communist dictatorship. The former Speaker also has some strange ideas about how democracy works in America.

Lloyd visits a shipwreck

 

Does AI Know You?

Many people may know about IN THE WEIGHTS already, but if not it's interesting.

If you have an online moniker such as the one you use to leave comments, the site will display a range of AI systems which know you and a very brief summary of what they know, if anything.