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Monday 19 August 2024

The Theory of Political Clues


Keir Starmer suffers post-election poll drop as 52% say UK ‘moving in wrong direction’

More than half of people think Britain is “moving in the wrong direction”, according to a poll which shows a drop in favourability for Sir Keir Starmer and his Cabinet.

The poll by Ipsos, conducted between August 9-12, showed a post-General Election drop in the perception of the Prime Minister, as well as his deputy Angela Rayner and Chancellor Rachel Reeves.

Of those polled, 22% said that they think things in Britain are heading in the right direction, 52% in the wrong direction and 19% neither.


It's time to invent the "Theory of Political Clues". This theory would predict the number of obvious political clues required to persuade a particular percentage of voters to wake up and pay attention. 

For a large percentage of voters such as the 52% we see here, the Theory of Political Clues might predict that at least 20 obvious political clues are required to wake up 52% of the electorate. 

For example, Angela Rayner, David Lammy and Ed Miliband count as three clues within the theory.  Net Zero, the BBC and Gary Lineker count as three more.

Of course anyone already paying attention will soon note that some people would require an immense number of political clues to wake up and pay attention. There is an upper limit here and unfortunately 52% may be quite close to a theoretical limit where there is a diminishing return with each additional political clue.

At this point the "Theory of Political Boneheads" steps in.

12 comments:

DiscoveredJoys said...

How long before opinion polls are deemed to be divisive and harmful?

If we get to that point then we can assume that the Labour Government are 'frit'.

microdave said...

ONLY 52%??? We really are screwed....

Nobby Aristotle said...

This is early days yet, parliament is in recess and Sunak has gone AWOL so the socialists are getting a free pass.
Wait until we get into the dog days of winter, the unions are horsing it up Starmer's ginker as every public sector worker queues up for the same outlandish pay rises they've already given out, Lamentable Lammy gets humiliated on the international stage,the Trots start agitating for Palestinian support at the party conference and the Faragemeister plots more embarrassment for Tories and Labour alike.
Then the shitshow really happens. Fortunately having worked hard all my live I'm well off so can afford to sit back with a glass of something nice and watch all the fun and games.
Happy as a pig in the doodah with what's coming up.
Bring it on.

A K Haart said...

DJ - we probably won't have to wait long before opinion polls have to tick a few political boxes. Maybe they do that already.

Dave - yes, it's far too low. Yes we are screwed.

Nobby - I agree, it's all there waiting to kick off once the holiday season is over, nights are drawing in, people have to switch on the central heating and the media are hunting for stories of political conflict.

Doonhamer said...

Clue Number One. Are the Tory, LibDem, Labour politician's lips moving?
Then he/she/it/them /they/those/ are lying (Expressing a technological inexactitude to be precise.) Miss-speaking. (sounds misogynistic. [As does MISSogynstic]) Taken out of context. Loss of recollection (I have a Members' bar bill, with attached expenses claim to prove my point.)

Anonymous said...

is the penny starting to drop with a few more people that the electorate are going to get what they voted for - good and hard?

Nessimmersion said...

Are more people starting to wake up the the fact that the electorate are going to get what they voted for - good and hard ??

A K Haart said...

Doonhamer - yes, their lips are moving, the lies are emitted and the expenses forms duly submitted. Lies are expensive but the real owners must think them worthwhile.

Nessimmersion - I think they are, but slowly. With luck, this latest bunch may ram the message home good and hard.

Anonymous said...

I wonder how many of those polled, who think that Labour is going on the wrong direction, actually voted in the last GE? If they did vote, for whoever, then they have the right to say what they did. Those who couldn't be bothered get off their arses and vote, should consider that this country is going on the wrong direction partly because of their apathy and, in my.opinion, should accept part of the blame.
Penseivat

A K Haart said...

Penseivat - I didn't vote, partly because we were on holiday and I don't like the idea of postal votes and partly because I didn't see a good candidate, including the Reform guy.

Anonymous said...

AKH - A postal vote is still voting, and has just as much a chance of being counted, as the voting slips put in the box. Putting "None of the above" on the slip is still voting, and are counted. They also tell the candidates that you don't feel they are up to the job.
I suspected the person I voted for would not be selected (unfortunately, he wasn't), so I suppose it could be counted as a lost vote. However, I know the candidate from his local authority, and wanted to show him that someone believed that he was the best candidate and he should keep doing what he was doing.

A K Haart said...

Anon - my problem with postal voting is its association with electoral fraud. In spite of the checks, it violates the principle of the secret ballot. Perhaps it's just a personal thing, but I do see it as a backward step.