To believe and disbelieve simultaneously

The face of the Lady of VII Dolours miraculously smiled at her; the silver heart miraculously shed its tarnish and glittered beneficent lightnings. Doubtless she knew somewhere in her mind that no physical change had occurred in the picture or the heart; but her mind was a complex, and like nearly all minds could disbelieve and believe simultaneously.

Arnold Bennett – The Pretty Lady (1918)


Wealthy person flies by private jet to a conference denouncing the use of fossil fuels. Lesser person denounces fossil fuels in a social gathering while making only trivial personal concession to avoiding their use. We call such people hypocrites because they are, because they disbelieve and believe simultaneously. Or they appear to.

It’s very similar to revealed and stated preferences, but in this case we have revealed and stated beliefs. Stated verbally and revealed by behaviour. We see it all the time, but if a person believes and disbelieves simultaneously, it doesn’t say much for the notion of belief as an aspect of personality, as a kind of mental algorithm.

We already know that belief is an unreliable notion. On a daily basis we encounter situations where it fails to explain what people say and do. People recycle yogurt pots and cycle to work because of climate change. Or so they say. Yet revealed and stated belief differs to such a degree that we may as well conclude that there is no genuine belief in the climate narrative.

It is more useful to look at belief as a repertoire of responses which may lead us to give incompatible responses to the same subject but in different situations - as B.F Skinner would have explained it. The notion of belief sitting in a person’s head directing external operations doesn’t work. What we observe is merely verbal and physical behaviour adapted to social situations. Shallow of us, but we are shallow. It’s how we adapt.

Behaviour is the guide through inevitable human shallowness. What we wish to see in politics and politicians is consistent revealed and stated beliefs – consistent verbal and physical behaviour.

In which case, many of us must be hypocrites, because we don’t vote for that. We vote for stated beliefs knowing they are unlikely to be confirmed by future behaviour. It’s as if we have an inbuilt timing problem. 

Stated political beliefs are immediate, part of the here and now. Revealing behaviour comes later, often piecemeal, often obscured by spin and propaganda. We are too slow, our memories too short and fragmented for us to vote competently in our own interests.

Meanwhile our political leaders are stating their beliefs…