Wednesday, 29 May 2024
Access to Uncertainty
It is often pointed out that a notable feature of the internet is that it makes worthwhile ideas more accessible. We could even go on from that to say the internet makes veracity more democratic which is why elites are not keen on it. Not that veracity was inaccessible before the internet, but now it is very much more accessible and much quicker and cheaper to access.
Yet is can be equally interesting to approach this from another angle and recall how the internet has also made uncertainty much more accessible. When we are told that an official policy or assertion is solidly backed by “the science”, it is often easy enough to check the veracity of the claim. Too often it turns out that “the science” is much more uncertain than the official line claims. Identify uncertainty and we often identify lying by omission.
In a world where lying by omission is not at all uncommon, access to uncertainty is often the first step in discrediting a lie. If the claim has unacknowledged uncertainties then there may be no need to take it further. It may not be necessary to promote an alternative version because unacknowledged uncertainty may be sufficient to identify the lie as a lie.
This enhanced access to uncertainty can counter fact-checker claims too. Facts themselves may not be uncertain, but the use to which they are put may weave uncertainties into the overall claim. Uncertainty may be enough to identify the fact-checking as irrelevant or another example of lying by omission.
The point to be made is that access to uncertainty is often a more powerful defence against misinformation than a search for concrete veracity. As ever, a good example is the orthodox climate change narrative where supposedly settled science is riddled with uncertainties and worse.
For example, numerous confident climate predictions have failed to occur as predicted. From the loss of Arctic sea ice in summer to rising sea levels to mass starvation to a whole series of tipping points, predictive failure is commonplace. This is where the power of accessible uncertainty lies, in the simple observation of failed predictions. Lies are exposed by uncertainties.
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3 comments:
According to various prophets and, yes, some scientists the world should have ended numerous times in the last couple of thousand years.
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_dates_predicted_for_apocalyptic_events
Looks out window... I refute those predictions thus. If 'they' cannot get that right then the predictions of politics and economies are hardly worth any attention.
Certainty in public life would be wonderful, wouldn't it? There certainly seems to be plenty of it around, but what it actually consists of is politicians and would-be leaders presenting a simulacrum of certainty, because others will validate and follow those who seem more certain than themselves. Look at how Starmer and Sunak are being presented by their teams as staring acutely into the future, manly jaws set firm. It's skilful stuff, because most of the time they look like harassed middle-managers and their actions show that they are more prone to panic and vacillate than the rest of us.
The fact-checker stuff is interesting. On many occasions, "fact-checkers" have been shown up as attempts by the traditional media to shut down alternatives. I predict that we will now see a growth in "probability experts" and "likelihood pundits" who acknowledge that the truth is uncertain, but who deploy fancy statistical and mathematical models to show which version is objectively nearest to reality. The BBC will admit that it is all different shades of grey, but some chirpy little Oxbridge graduate will tell us which shade of grey is the best one if you don't want to be stupid.
DJ - yet we used to make fun of doom-mongers via stereotypes such as the little chap the the sandwich board saying "The End of the World is Nigh". Now many seem to take it seriously rather than dismissing it as more of the same. The media have multiplied the sandwich boards perhaps.
Sam - "staring acutely into the future, manly jaws set firm."
I like that, but you are right, harassed middle-managers is the image they project. Starmer seems to find it particularly difficult to be anything else. It isn't easy to see how he got there, although his party seems to find it almost impossible to attract anyone better.
Uncertainty is dangerous ground for governments accustomed to make a specific response to "something must be done". Voters and political parties might think in terms of options and choices, but even worse they may have to talk about trade-offs. Worse still, "do nothing" may have to enter public debates, or even changing direction.
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