Tuesday, 14 November 2023
Predictions that never come to pass
I have tamed that savage stenographic mystery. I make a respectable income by it. I am in high repute for my accomplishment in all pertaining to the art, and am joined with eleven others in reporting the debates in Parliament for a Morning Newspaper. Night after night, I record predictions that never come to pass, professions that are never fulfilled, explanations that are only meant to mystify.
Charles Dickens - David Copperfield (1849-50)
We all know this, but one of the great curses on our age is prediction. It attracts crooks, charlatans and cranks, causes immense and obvious damage yet still it goes on.
Where will it all end? Don’t ask the crooks, charlatans or cranks, they don’t know.
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7 comments:
We currently have more political pundits than at any time in history. Not just the MSM, but lots of individuals and organisations online. And they have access to vast amounts of data. Yet not one predicted Cameron's momentous return.
To hear the likes of R.4's Nick Robinson speaking, you'd think there was nothing he didn't know about Whitehall and UK politics. Yet I heard him breezily tell Nadine Dorries that he had seen Boris's famous gold wallpaper. It turns out that there never was any such paper, and he lied.
Style is all, and these people are undergraduate essay-writers, entertainers, romance-peddlers.
Mr Gazza, the footballer: "I never make predictions and I never will."
I predict that....
No, better not.
It will never end before the heat-death of the Universe. News (usually bad news) sells and politicians are great generators of 'news'.
The papers (and web sites) have to fill their publications with whatever is to hand. But - and this is the key part - politicians and journalists/media are rarely directly punished for the quality of the 'news' they produce.
Sam - the Nick Robinson lie is weird because it casts doubt on his veracity with no obvious compensation. As if mainstream media put no value on veracity because their audience puts no value on it. Drama and romance-peddling sell far better than boring old veracity and uncertainty.
dearieme - I predict that his obituary will focus entirely on his talent and his personal problems.
DAD - good idea, no point joining them.
DJ - yes, consequences mould behaviour and the media rely on audiences which generally don't cause them negative consequences. So they carry on as before.
I'd ask the awful BBC, because their predictions are always going to be right - unless they're wrong of course!
Scrobs - they hope people forget about the wrong ones.
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