Ninety-five percent

Imagine an orthodox, middle-aged climate scientist who thinks the fossil fuel catastrophe narrative is quite likely to be wrong. To clarify this, maybe that imaginary climate scientist would admit to himself that the catastrophe narrative has a ninety-five percent chance of being wrong. Not that the numbers mean much, but he thinks in those terms.

This leaves him in a position where the catastrophe narrative has a five percent chance of being right. In other words he can push on with his career with a clear conscience. He might discover something useful and in any event, the consequences of being right are so extremely severe.

It’s an application of the so-called precautionary principle.

The precautionary principle (or precautionary approach) is a broad epistemological, philosophical and legal approach to innovations with potential for causing harm when extensive scientific knowledge on the matter is lacking. It emphasizes caution, pausing and review before leaping into new innovations that may prove disastrous. Critics argue that it is vague, self-cancelling, unscientific and an obstacle to progress.

The critics are right, but it allows our imaginary climate scientist to be both sceptic and believer within the same skin. We could adjust those percentages to ninety-nine percent and one percent but it makes no difference.

 

The argument is familiar in various guises and is widely applicable. Net Zero the, pandemic response, epidemiology, ever tighter traffic regulations, air quality, food additives and so on and so on.