Tories set for worst election result, major poll suggests
Rishi Sunak’s Tories could be reduced to fewer than 100 MPs at the general election, a new poll has suggested.
The 15,000-person poll was used to create a seat-by-seat breakdown, which indicated the Conservatives would be wiped out in Scotland and Wales and hold just 98 seats in England.
Best for Britain chief executive Naomi Smith said: “With the polling showing swathes of voters turning their backs on the Tories, it’s clear that this will be a change election.”
This is the problem for voters who pay attention. Based on these results there is almost no chance that the forthcoming general election will be a change election unless a marked acceleration of the decline counts as change. Otherwise it's more of the same with different faces and marketing. Even sillier faces unfortunately.
The only real hope for this general election is a major upset of some kind, but a huge Labour victory is not a major upset. Otherwise it's a case of waiting five years for the next general election in the hope that millions more voters wake up.
6 comments:
The main question in my mind is whether a new party can become a Parliamentary presence in between the time when voters realise that Labour isn't working (again) and the Conservatives find their purpose (again).
DJ - I hope so because we need something to break the Lab/Con stranglehold. We need a party of loud, pragmatic sceptics in there.
The loud, pragmatic, sceptical generation is getting too old for politics.
dearieme - it seems so. We still have 'loud' of course.
At the next election the voters face a choice of more of the same vs more of the same on steroids. The logical conclusion is we are going to get more of the same either way, so its best to try and discredit more of the same as quickly as possible, ergo destroy the Tories and hope something else grows in that space. Thats the only way we might (just might, there's no guarantees here) in future get offered an alternative that is not more of the same.
The only problem is that things can get pretty bad before a genuine alternative arises that people are prepared to vote for. Look at Argentina, its taken decades for Milei to appear and for things to be so bad that anyone (however mad sounding) seems a better option than the status quo.
Plus of course if things do go to rat sh*t, best for it to happen under the banner of Labour rather than a party of 'the Right' (even though we know the Tories are not Right at all). Better to have a massively reduced Tory party and/or Reform sniping at Labour from the actual Right than have a 'left of centre' Tory party (which is what we have now) in power.
Sobers - I agree, one way or another, more of the same has to be discredited. A massively reduced Tory party could push that along if the remnants shift to the right, but Labour is not a pragmatic party and could still mess up worthwhile changes.
Even so, step one is a massively reduced Tory party and that does seem to be a genuine possibility.
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