Interesting times

A powerful presentation and perhaps inevitable given the politics of the past few decades.

Sighs of relief all round

UK ministers begin contingency planning amid economic fears over Iran war

Donald Trump has branded the UK and other Nato allies “cowards” but anger is growing among cabinet ministers that his war in Iran could jeopardise Britain’s fragile finances.

Senior members of the government are in despair about the potential effects on the economy, with experts warning of higher energy prices and mortgage and borrowing costs.

They have already begun contingency planning in case the conflict is protracted, including considering lowering speed limits to minimise fuel consumption.


The blame game ramps up as we knew it would - make the plebs conform to something futile to hammer home the message. It's always the way.

The lower speed limits wheeze pinched from the 1973 oil crisis is a good one. Don't let the plebs handle it themselves by adjusting their own travel arrangements - that's no use for the blame game. It's no use for the status game either, but that's a game which never ends.

Keir Starmer and Rachel from Accounts must be relieved, but many others will jump in with their favourite narratives. Mad Ed is bound to.

Running out of time

Rayner warns Starmer’s Labour running out of time to win back voters

Angela Rayner has issued her clearest challenge to Sir Keir Starmer yet, warning that Labour is “running out of time” to deliver change and cannot “go through the motions in the face of decline”.

In a speech at an event by left-wing campaign group Mainstream, the former deputy prime minister said the party had come to be seen to represent “the Establishment, not working people” and called for a change of course.

For anyone hoping for some slight improvement in the UK political outlook in 2026, current leadership betting extracted via Copilot AI merely reminds us that we are all running out of time -

Political betting markets currently indicate Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting as the front-runners to replace Keir Starmer, with 2026 being the most likely year for a leadership change.

The latest betting markets show a strong consensus that Keir Starmer may step down as Prime Minister during 2026. William Hill lists 2026 as the favourite exit year at odds of 1/5 , while other bookmakers place the probability of his departure by September 2026 at around 58%–80% .

In terms of potential successors:

• Angela Rayner: Former Deputy Prime Minister and prominent figure on Labour's left, consistently leads the betting. Odds across multiple bookmakers range from 11/4 to 14/5, implying a 26-27% probability .
• Wes Streeting: Health Secretary and a noted reformist, is closely behind Rayner. He is listed at odds around 9/2 to 11/2, translating to roughly an 18% chance in current betting markets .
• Ed Miliband: Former Labour leader, maintains a notable chance with odds of 6/1 to 7/1 .
• Andy Burnham: Popular in the North West and former mayor, features at longer odds of 12/1 to 3/1 in different reports .
• Other candidates: Include Shabana Mahmood, Nigel Farage (in disruption scenarios), Yvette Cooper, and Kemi Badenoch, with odds ranging higher, reflecting lower market expectations .

These betting odds reflect public and political sentiment as perceived by punters, and are subject to change based on events such as elections, media developments, and internal party dynamics. They do not guarantee actual leadership outcomes.

Overall, Rayner and Streeting are the primary focus in 2026 succession markets, while Starmer’s position remains under intense debate, making this a highly monitored political landscape.

Welsh Labour is doomed

Adam James Pollock has an interesting Critic piece on the Senedd election on 7 May and a strong possibility that it will be disastrous for Welsh Labour. 


Welsh Labour is doomed

New scandals will speed up its decline into irrelevance

Last Thursday, Nigel Farage and the Leader of Reform UK Wales, Dan Thomas, took to the stage in Newport to launch the party’s Welsh manifesto ahead of the Senedd elections on 7 May.

The manifesto outlines policies tailored specifically to Welsh people, from a commitment to building specific motorway relief roads and fixing crumbling expressways, to ensuring that Welsh men and women are prioritised for social housing.

While Reform UK are campaigning in the hope to win the Senedd, Farage has been open about the fact that the Welsh campaign is about more than that. Speaking at the manifesto launch, he said the Senedd election “doubles up as a referendum on Keir Starmer’s premiership”, who has been “the worst Prime Minister any of us have seen in our lifetimes.”

The whole piece is well worth reading because -


The Labour Party does not exude stability anywhere, but perhaps least of all in Wales. It is difficult to say whether or not Reform will win at the Senedd; if polling is anything to go by, they will not. But if there is anything to be certain of, it is that Labour will lose. The extent of their losses, not just in Wales but across the other elections on the same day, could well spell the end of the Starmer premiership. It has been a long time coming.

But no surprise

John Prescott's son joins Greens

David Prescott decision to join the Greens comes as the party overtakes Labour for the first time in the polls.

Karl Turner, who succeeded John Prescott as the Labour MP for Hull East in the 2010 general election, told Sky News the defection was "hugely disappointing" but "no surprise."

He added: "I suspect John Prescott would be furious if he was around today.

"But his anger would be aimed at the Labour Party for allowing progressive voters to leave Labour and go to what they see as a left-wing, more progressive alternative to the party he worked all of his adult life to elect into government, to change the lives of the many, not the few, for the better."

Politicians eh? They play strange language games where words such as 'progressive' seem to mean no more than progressively totalitarian, benefitting the few, not the many.

Interesting times unfortunately.

The pied piper of national ruin

Joseph Dinnage has a topical CAPX piece on Zack Polanski. Worth reading, but if voters can't see through Polanski, there isn't much to hope for.

How to beat Zack Polanski

• Like the pied piper of economic ruin, Zack Polanski is leading young people to misery
• The British Right must learn from the Canadian Conservatives' success with young voters
• You can’t blame the young for feeling sufficiently disenchanted to vote for a man nicknamed ‘hypnotits’

The Green Party’s victory in last week’s Gorton and Denton by-election was a grim indicator of where British politics could be heading. With 40% of the vote, Hannah Spencer won her campaign by stirring the pot of local sectarianism; releasing campaign videos in Urdu and Bengali, accusing the Government of funding ‘genocide’ in Gaza, and – most absurdly – claiming that ‘people like’ the Reform UK candidate Matthew Goodwin caused the Manchester arena bombing by ‘dividing people’.

You’ll notice that none of these strategies have anything to do with the environment. Under Zack Polanski’s leadership, the Greens have shifted from environmentalism to what French conservatives have termed Islamo-gauchisme – a fusion of traditional Leftism with the imported communal grievances of a growing Muslim population. Polanski has branded this the politics of ‘hope’, but of course this menacing ideology of economic self-destruction and social division is nothing of the sort.

Chasm

Gorton by-election revealed ‘chasm’ between politics and people, Burnham warns

The Labour mayor of Greater Manchester suggested the result demonstrated Westminster was not focused on the priorities of ordinary people.

The Gorton and Denton by-election “revealed the full depth of the chasm between people and Westminster politics”, Andy Burnham has said in one of his first public comments on the ballot.


Oh come on Andy, the chasm has been there for a long time and you are part of it, you can't bridge it because you can't drop the Labour baggage. It isn't complicated, but you must know that.

We get the governments we deserve

Voting in parliamentary elections such as the recent Gorton and Denton by-election is an odd business. It has been said often enough that we get the governments we deserve and it seems obvious enough that this is so in spite of caveats.

The major UK political parties, Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, and SNP have over recent decades shown themselves to be some combination of untrustworthy, incompetent or ideologically absurd. Possibly all three. The Greens are merely absurd. We might add that Reform seems to be an unknown quantity at the moment.

If a political party shows itself to be democratically worthless, surely we are not being radical to suggest that the point of voting for the party disappears. Unfortunately, and as we know, it doesn’t work like that – far too many voters stick with worthless parties.

Why voters do that is a separate issue, they just do. Collectively we get the worthless political parties we deserve.

If we vote for a particular political party when we vote to elect an MP, there is an underlying assumption that other voters are sufficiently rational enough to make voting worthwhile. Otherwise we are liable to be confronted with the problem of voters who do not reject a worthless or even an ideologically malign political party.

Which leads us towards a conclusion that the competence or incompetence of voters matters rather a lot. To vote rationally requires an undefined but significant effort to acquire political antennae, an ability to recognise dubious claims, some relevant knowledge and an ability to analyse.

It also requires at least a basic understanding of what works and what doesn’t, some understanding of taxation and the difference between spending and investment, what is affordable and what is not, what is plausible and what is merely rhetoric.

Another approach is human instinct, the ability to see vanity, specious language, furtive responses, too much reliance on ideology or social fashions and above all – dishonesty. To do that, voters need to pay attention to the endless unfolding of political and social events.

But it isn’t like that. We have too many incompetent voters and we get the political parties and governments which reflect that, the governments we collectively deserve.

Transnational, rootless, cosmopolitan ideologies

FSB has an interesting piece on Dr James Orr, Reform UK head of policy. Well worth reading.

The Philosopher King of Reform: James Orr and the Intellectual Reboot of British Populism

When Nigel Farage unveiled Reform UK’s shadow cabinet on 18 February 2026, one much overlooked appointment stood out to me for its intellectual heft and potential to reshape the party’s trajectory: Dr James Tristan Ward Orr, associate professor of philosophy of religion at the University of Cambridge, was named head of policy, succeeding Zia Yusuf. Farage’s choice of a 47-year-old theologian-philosopher with deep ties to the American ‘New Right’ signals an ambition to move Reform beyond headline-grabbing protest politics towards a more coherent, governance-ready programme...

Domestically, Orr has become a leading voice in Britain’s national conservative movement. He frames Britain’s multiple crises of stagnant productivity, soaring debt, social breakdown, institutional decay as fundamentally spiritual. In interviews he speaks of “transnational, rootless, cosmopolitan ideologies” that repudiate national spirit and collective endeavour. Multiculturalism, he argues, has been a “disastrous experiment” turning Britain into “a laboratory for hyper-liberalism” where English culture is under threat and assimilation has failed at unprecedented scale. “This new nation that’s emerging is really no nation at all,” he told PoliticsHome.

On immigration he is uncompromising. He has spoken of “vast swathes of London where you can’t send your kids to school because English is just not spoken anymore” and “the mass rape of England’s daughters by rapist foreigners from morally backward cultures”. Asylum seekers have been described by him in terms critics – BBC types - call inflammatory; he has praised protesters against a new mosque in the Lake District as “heroes”. Diversity, in his view, is a “debilitating weakness”.

Another squirrel

Andrew faces being cut from line of succession

Sir Keir Starmer will consider passing a law to remove Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor from the line of succession.

It is understood that any change to legislation would take place after the police investigation into the disgraced former prince is concluded.

The historic move follows the arrest of Mr Mountbatten-Windsor on Thursday on suspicion of misconduct in public office.

Mr Mountbatten-Windsor has been stripped of the title of prince but remains eighth in line to the throne after Prince William, Prince Harry and their children.

The chap is 66 years old and eighth in line to the throne. Even Keir Starmer must know there are more pressing issues.

For example, who is next in line for No. 10? 

The Legacy of Tony Blair

Joseph Dinnage has a useful CAPX reminder of the damage done to UK politics by Tony Blair and our inability to make any serious political attempts to tackle it. 

The Right needs its own Tony Blair

• Tony Blair is Britain's worst constitutional vandal – but you have to marvel at his effectiveness
• Voters are crying out for a new constitutional settlement
• Despite 14 years of Tory rule, the legacy of Tony Blair remains inescapable

Say what you like about him – and I often do – but Tony Blair remains inescapable. Perhaps that is why, almost 30 years after he first entered No.10 as Prime Minister, Channel 4 has a new three-part series following his journey from Fettes to Iraq...

Through a comprehensive package of constitutional reforms, Blair utterly reshaped the state. It was he who established the devolved assemblies of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, stoking the disunity that now characterises our kingdom. In 1998, he passed the Human Rights Act, incorporating the European Convention on Human Rights into domestic law, thus outsourcing our ability to control inward migration to judges in Strasbourg. Not content with handing over decision-making to unelected officials abroad, he formalised this arrangement at home with the creation of the Supreme Court and a thicket of quangos.

The whole piece is well worth reading as a reminder that without an explicit and comprehensive reversal of Blair's vandalism, the UK has no worthwhile political future. Reversal may be politically impossible of course, there is no evidence that enough voters have any idea of the lasting damage Blair inflicted.


Both Badenoch and Nigel Farage could do worse than to watch Channel 4’s Blairite love-in, because voters are through with tinkering. Over the coming months and years, it will be up to either leader to prove that they have a plan to overhaul Blairism once and for all, and rebuild the state in a way that unlocks growth and opportunity through conservative means.

Mandate

Starmer loses another top aide but clings on – for now

In front of a packed meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party, Sir Keir also vowed that as long as he had “breath in my body” he would fight against Nigel Farage on behalf of the country, adding that he had “won every fight I’ve ever been in”.

He said: “After having fought so hard for the chance to change our country, I’m not prepared to walk away from my mandate and my responsibility to my country, or to plunge us into chaos as others have done.”

A chap is bound to wonder what Starmer's 'mandate' is supposed to be, but of course the answer is that the only mandate any of them recognise is to stay in power.

Yet a chap is also bound to wonder if silly political words such as 'mandate' have become useless verbal baggage, words which impress nobody. Or maybe they have evolved into a kind of mystical twaddle akin to astrology, climate dooming and celebrity lingo...

Hang on...

Have twaddle speakers adopted and covertly formalised the language Twaddlish as a signal of social superiority? As the advantages of an upper echelon accent fade away, perhaps Twaddlish has taken its place. 

Gosh, perhaps the mandate of state education is to promote Twaddlish.

Miller

The YT video which was the subject of this post has been deleted until it has been verified as accurate. At the moment this does not seem to be the case.

Please accept my apologies, as ever the rule is check, check, check.

AKH

Potential New Labour Leader

Not a person I know much about, but surely Labour must have some decent MPs who could do the job.  One would do.

The Andy Burnham clown show

 

Labour rebels accuse Starmer of stitch-up

Labour rebels accuse Starmer of stitch-up over Andy Burnham: Latest

Labour rebels have accused Sir Keir Starmer and his allies of a “stitch-up” after Andy Burnham was blocked from running as an MP in the upcoming Gorton and Denoton by-election.

A letter circulated among backbenchers called for the National Executive Committee to “reevaluate” their decision, and said that losing the seat in a contest with Reform UK would be “unimaginable”.

A revealing aspect of the Starmer/Burnham debacle is the underlying rationale which claims that Burnham is a better actor than Starmer. He's more likeable too claims the covert narrative, better at delivering the lines, less wooden, more able to inject conviction into the usual flaccid nonsense and evasion he'd have to emit.

Not so much a more capable Prime Minister than Starmer, providing more competent political oversight of the government machine. This is tacitly assumed to be sort of, perhaps, kind of important to some picky punters, but far more important is that Burnham is seen as a more capable actor.

That's it.

Carry on scheming

Robert Jenrick 'told Kemi Badenoch to kick Liz Truss out' of the Conservatives

The Reform defector claims the Conservatives are "never going to change", but admits he made mistakes as a Tory minister.

Robert Jenrick claims he told Kemi Badenoch to kick former prime minister Liz Truss out of the Conservative Party because of her "cackhanded" mini budget.


There may be some Tories who hope Nigel Farage has accepted one defection too many with Robert Jenrick.

There may be some Reform members who wish Nigel Farage had allowed Jenrick to carry on scheming within the Tory party.

Are you sitting comfortably?

 

Source

Divide and Rule

As all political observers must know, the basic political strategy is to be divisive. To be political is to give allegiance to a divisive mythology where susceptible citizens are encouraged to identify with a named political standpoint and its collation of myths, legends, labels and slogans. Then stop thinking.

This is what voters expect and what they get from political parties, although the myths, legends, labels and slogans are usually presented as ideologies sheltering within a fog of extremely implausible virtues.

It all used to work after a fashion, in the days of sober newspaper accounts, TV and radio interviews, rallies, megaphones and soapbox oratory. It was always divisive though, sometimes recklessly and even tragically and grossly destructively divisive, this hasn’t changed.

The use of behavioural psychology to spin the myths isn’t new, but the hour by hour intensity of modern digital communication appears to have pushed political myth-making from reckless radicalism towards insanely divisive nonsense which resists correction through traditional political means.

The chap on the soapbox may now have to contend with unattractive, purple-haired folk screeching threats and slogans while waving ungrammatical placards. Too divisive for debate is too divisive for sanity within the political arena, as we know.

Much divisive nonsense appears to be generated via a shadowy mix of NGOs, fluid activist groups and pop-up outfits tuned to a current cause coupled with opaque funding. Even casual observation tells us that narratives promoted by many major politicians are derived from insanely divisive narratives with complex roots stretching well beyond traditional political discourse.

Whether politicians believe their deranged and divisive narratives is a problematic question, but they certainly advocate them and that’s what we observe. We don’t observe ‘beliefs’ or 'values' whatever they may be. It’s no good trying to tell UK politicians to stop listening to the sirens of divisive nonsense though. It has to stop working for them first.

Voters believe

Burnham ‘would make better PM than Starmer’

Voters believe that Andy Burnham would do a better job than Sir Keir Starmer in tackling almost every challenge facing Britain.

Mr Burnham, the Greater Manchester Mayor, was judged to be better placed to handle matters such as taxation, pensions and welfare and the cost of living crisis, polling for The Telegraph found.

He also scored better on managing immigration, crime, the NHS, the environment, housing policy and culture-war issues such as gender identity.


There are many things a chap could say about this leap in the dark. One is the obvious problem that Burnham isn't an MP. 

If he becomes an MP then another problem is that he'd have to become a Labour MP with all the baggage this entails.

A third problem is that he's Andy Burnham with a lack of relevant experience senior Labour politicians usually bring to their roles.