Sadiq Khan’s Brexit figures are straight out of fantasyland
Sadiq Khan’s new stats on the economic impact of Brexit have received widespread and breathless coverage, including in the international press. But on closer inspection, they appear to be inexcusably shoddy.
The Mayor commissioned new analysis from both Cambridge Econometrics and his own team at the Greater London Authority to show how much damage Brexit has done to Britain as a whole, and London in particular. But the core claims – in particular on growth and jobs – simply don’t stand up, whatever your position on Brexit.
Of course the numbers don't stand up, look at the guy who commissioned them. Yet the whole piece is well worth reading for that reason, because there is a major problem with politically commissioned numbers whatever the technical source. Not only is there a problem if the commissioning is political, but there is a problem with media failing to point out that it likely to be misleading at best. Makes a joke of media fact-checking on Net Zero, climate change, the pandemic and much else.
Now, to head off possible criticism – I am not making any claims at all about the economic impact of Brexit, positive or negative. I am saying that, as with so many of Khan’s other statistics (cough, housebuilding, cough), it pays to check, check and check again.
That said, it is pretty depressing how many people, and news outlets, seem to have swallowed these estimates whole, despite them being prima facie implausible to say the least (or at least dependent on a non-Brexiting Britain having a truly fantastic growth record, in every sense).
If the first lesson of politics is ‘learn to count’, then for Londoners the second might be never to take their Mayor at his word – at least on anything to do with data.
5 comments:
"The question about the UKs membership of the EU is both historical and completely beyond my remit. As Mayor, I'll just get on with delivering the best services for Londoners that their local taxes can pay for".
But until Sadiq Khan falls from grace, as all politicians eventually do, who is there in his immediate circle to contradict him? Commentators and politicians that criticise him can be written off as political opponents.
I'm reminded of the political value of court jesters who could 'speak the truth to power' without being seen as a competitor. Or the victorious Roman general in the chariot with a slave continuously whispering ‘Remember you are mortal’.
Bearing in mind the parlous state of comedy today and the establishment of 'hate' speech as a form of censorship, we could really, really, do with a Kings Jester or a House of Commons Jester or a Mayor of London's jester to whisper in the ears of the Powers That Be ‘Remember you are mortal’. Or 'Remember statistics are a double edged sword'.
Sam - beyond his remit seems to be his comfort zone. Delivering the best services for Londoners is too easy to check I suppose. Controversy is a good smoke screen too.
DJ - that's a good idea. It could be a sinecure beyond political or official interference.
First rule of data collection: the answers you get depend on the answers you ask. 'Nuff sed.
Jannie - and it would have been very clear what Sadiq Khan was paying for and what he wasn't paying for.
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