Monday 30 October 2023
The Catastrograde
Carbon emissions threaten 1.5C climate threshold sooner than thought - report
Human fossil fuel emissions are threatening a key climate threshold twice as quickly as previously thought, a new report says.
Researchers say the 1.5C limit could be continually breached by 2029, rather than the mid 2030s.
They say record emissions of carbon dioxide over the past three years are a key factor.
"Sooner than thought" implies that scientific thinking was involved but we'll let that pass. The real problem for carbonistas is that it isn't possible to make 1.5C sound like a large number. It's pretty difficult to avoid it sounding like a small, insignificant and not at all worrying number. A strategic blunder from the beginning I'd say.
What the carbonistas should have devised was a large, scary unit which was bound to become larger and scarier. They try to do that with predictions of doom by such and such a date, but the date passes and yet another prediction drops into the dustbin of carbonista history. Even King Charles has tried that.
No, some other unit was required from the beginning such as the Catastrograde. This could be linked to the date so it would be guaranteed to become larger and larger over time. Merely a suggestion, but worth thinking about.
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5 comments:
Some random thoughts here.
1) If their model of how much carbon we were burning was wrong, why should we trust them on what the effects of burning carbon will be?
2) Record emissions of the past 3 years? We shut down the whole global economy for a couple of years. Where was it coming from? Climate scientists flying to conferences?
3) If the irreparable catastrophe happens in 2029, will some COP frequent flyer donate his/her private jet to charity so disadvantaged kids can be flown around the world for fun until we all die?
How about 'Microns'; as in one thousandth of an inch. 1.5°C then becomes 1,500 micron-degrees.
Thinking again about it 'Micro' defines something small, so lets go anti-metric.
1.5°C = 2.7°F, that's better, but not too scary enough.
What if we call 27 decidegrees? That's even better.
They should never have abandoned Fahrenheit, which immediately magnified any increase.
Or, if sticking with Celcius, they should use "percentage increase".
So a mid-winter change from plus one Celsius to plus two is an increase of 200 %.
Wow, truly scary. Who do I give my money to?
Yes I know that this is scientific ordure, But the followers of the Blessed Greeter will swallow it.
The Apocolanche?
Of course if we get to an increase of 1.5 C (endless debate about how we measure that reliably) and the the world does not end in an Apocalypse/Apocolanche/Catasrograde we will have a Revelation. Although the revelation may be how many contorted excuses are made for the world not ending - but it will still happen 'real soon now'.
Sam - yes, it's all fairy tales abetted by scientist who should be ashamed of themselves. It's obvious that we are being herded into a compulsory low consumption lifestyle including a much reduced ability to travel where we please.
DAD - 27 decidegrees is just the job and almost credible enough for them to have used it. Fortunately they didn't think of it.
Doonhamer - percentage increase is another good one and strange that they didn't think of it.
DJ - and as we know, by some mysterious process the 2030 date will slip towards 2040. Unless global cooling begins of course, in which case that will be our fault too.
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