Somewhere between plague and the sniffles say experts

COVID-19: New deadlier coronavirus variant that could kill one in three infected people 'a realistic possibility', SAGE warns

In a paper on the "long term evolution" of coronavirus, SAGE also says the virus could result in "much less severe disease" in older people and those who are clinically vulnerable in the long term.

The emergence of a new COVID variant with a similar death rate to MERS, which kills one in three infected people, is a "realistic possibility", the government's scientific advisers have warned.

However the experts also say the virus could result in "much less severe disease" in older people and those who are clinically vulnerable in the long term.

I think I could come up with hedged bets on that scale. Especially if I'd been given a strong hint that the circus has to be kept going until the numbers rise again after the summer.