Heat deaths in England and Wales could surge 50-fold, study warns
It comes as areas of the UK face another heatwave, with temperatures over the next few days forecast to be above average and exceed 30C (86F) for many.
Annual heat-related deaths might climb into the tens of thousands in the coming decades, according to research by University College London (UCL) and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
They say today's baseline figure of 634 heat deaths a year could hit 10,317 in the 2050s and, in a worst-case scenario, 34,027 in the 2070s.
“Nothing can be more certain,” he continued, “if corn continues to be imported from America, in a hundred years from now there won’t be a single peasant left in all France. Do you think that our land can contend with yonder one? Long before we have had time to put these new plans in practice, the foreigners will have inundated us with grain. I have read a book which tells all about it. You fellows are all doomed—”
Emile Zola - La Terre (1887)
6 comments:
A 'study' can warn as much as it likes. Until the author(s) show their workings and place their reputation on the line then I shall pay no attention.
I don't wish to promote division but there are so many people mouthing dire warnings without any justification that I think we should deploy 'the cut direct' - that is pointedly ignore them and socially ostracise them.
DJ - I agree, too many 'experts' and pundits don't put their own skin in the game. In many cases they don't have to if their predictions are aligned with an ideology.
Naturally this is all computer models.
Or, in other words, GIGO.
Peter - yes, all models and as useful as a collection of chocolate teapots.
Again, more alarmist nonsense. In Central Otago in the South Island of New Zealand, (not all that far from where I live), temperatures get above 30 C every summer, as well as going as low as minus 20.in winter. Yet people manage to live and work there quite happily.
John - yes, we adapt. Ironically, many people here in the UK seek out holiday destinations where summer temperatures are likely to be about 30C and above. When it occurs here it's doom time.
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