Friday, 29 May 2020
X the Unknown - or maybe not
A conception not reducible to the small change of daily experience is like a currency not exchangeable for articles of consumption; it is not a symbol, but a fraud.
George Santayana - The Life of Reason (1906)
Many of us must have wondered if there is a vital aspect of the human condition we have missed. An elusive shadow flits across the musing mind and then it is gone, leaving nothing behind but a faint sense of something vastly important but forever out of reach. Suppose we call that missing something X.
What could X be? I’ve no grand solution so why not do some lateral thinking and assume X is not something missing from our way of thinking, but a thing so basic we do not pay enough attention to it. Honesty would fit that criterion, but suppose X has multiple facets and honesty is merely one of them.
X could be several things in addition to honesty, so why add experience to the mix. We are intimately familiar with experience because it is so vitally important yet we undervalue it in many situations. Suppose X includes our failure to demand experience from those who direct our lives. We already know how little relevant experience they often have in the complexities of government. Maybe this is a facet of X.
Jeremy Corbyn for example, did not appear to make any significant effort to acquire relevant government experience in any field. Although defeated in two general elections, millions voted for him in spite of his obvious and easily verified lack of experience.
Voting for Corbyn made no sense whatever – as if a weak X allowed millions of people to ignore their absolute reliance on experience. They voted for inexperience while knowing how essential it is to have experience. A willingness to acquire it would be a step in the right direction but apparently Mr Corbyn saw no pressing need to go that far. And millions voted for him - millions voted for weak X.
In which case, maybe voters and MPs need more experience to begin with. Raise the voting age to 30 and the minimum age for MPs to 40 for example. It may not solve the experience problem but it could give more weight to it and bring democratic processes slightly closer to real life. Bring in a stronger X.
Climate change is another example where those promoting the catastrophe narrative have no experience in successfully predicting long term changes in the global climate. This purely imaginary level of experience does not exist anywhere, in any science, any institution or any individual. Yet people confidently make long term climate predictions. Based on what? They know they don’t have the experience to make such predictions. If X is a blend of honesty and experience then here we have a lack of honesty allied to a lack of experience. Weak X on two counts.
Another example would be UK government policy towards the coronavirus debacle. This policy is supposedly dictated by a series of future scenarios calculated using computer models plus a general experience of other pandemics. If we take X as our guide then we should ask what experience these people have of this particular virus and this particular pandemic. The answer is obviously none – they have no direct one to one experience. So we add some caveats because maybe they do have some relevant experience.
Again, the pernicious effect of weak X may still persuade us to take experts seriously instead of clearing our minds of imaginary futures and paying attention to experience gained in the past. What have these experts achieved before in this situation? Nothing? How about similar situations? Nothing much apart from offering basic advice like hand washing and being wary of crowds. We could go further down that route but we may lose sight of all that missing experience and in so doing lose sight of what we really want – strong X.
Politically something always has to be done, so prominent people must be in conspicuous control of what is done. The UK response to the pandemic is probably as close to foolish guesswork as it seems to be because X remains in the background and remains weak.
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7 comments:
Good post, AKH.
One important point about experience is that our personal experience is an extremely good guide, providing we handle it well. Note how some people learn from it, whereas others keep making the same stupid mistakes.
But with big collective issues such as you mention, we need to rely on the experience of others. The trouble is that knowing who to trust is tricky. And nearly impossible when our information is filtered. As you rightly point out, they've got to be seen to be doing something, and that has little to do with what actually works. Think how much money and energy has gone into teaching as to wash our hands...
Sam - thanks and yes, knowing who to trust is tricky although experience seems to be building. There is a certain tone to the more reliable sources, hints about uncertainty and caveats which we learn to expect because they should be there but are less prominent in the unreliable outlets.
Teaching us to wash our hands is an odd one but maybe it is based on studies showing how casual some people are in this respect. I'm sure I've come across it in the past. In future I can see us wearing gloves to push those supermarket trollies.
Can you add a Like button or star rating? Often I haven't anything to add but would like to show appreciation.
It's the masks and gloves that worry me. If I see someone walking around in a mask, I assume they are ill. Why else wear a mask but to try to protect others. A piece of manky cloth is unlikely to stop a virus. And why walk around with gloves? If you have touched something infected, then you will spread it,and carry it back to your car (making it a viral incubator) and home. Using masks and gloves without knowing or following the protocols is just an effective way of spreading infection
Missed out the conclusion. The behaviour of most people I see wearing gloves and masks makes me think they are just amulets to ward off disease. Mere superstition
Graeme - we haven't seen many masks or gloves. We've worn disposable gloves a couple of times but these are the type which turn inside out when you peel them off. We have a few masks in case some places insist on them when lockdown is lifted, but are more likely to avoid such places if possible.
To my mind the only real value of a mask is to remind people not to touch their face. We mostly rely on good hygiene and antibacterial hand foam.
Sackers - that must be worth a try. I've always avoided it because it seems too casual but I've had similar experiences myself where I would like to comment positively but have nothing to add.
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