Tuesday, 21 April 2020
Know anyone with COVID-19?
Mrs H and I have been discussing the likelihood that we might know of some specific individual who definitely has or who definitely had the coronavirus infection. This would include family, friends, acquaintances, slight acquaintances and people we know at one remove - friend of a friend for example. That must be a fair number of people and many would be in the higher risk group by virtue of their age.
A slightly ghoulish question, but of some interest in view of the draconian way the pandemic has been tackled. Yet we haven't heard of anyone at all and one or two of the people we know encounter large numbers of other people in their daily lives. I don't know if this lack of even the most nebulous personal link is unusual or not though.
This link has some calculations but the numbers involved are too uncertain to throw much light on the question.
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Without universal testing, we're all in Schrodinger's cat territory, compounded by the fact that humans - rather inconsiderately - tend not to behave like nice orderly mathematical models.
On a purely anecdotal basis, I can offer you several dozen elderly people in a small English town (not my home area) who all suffered from an undiagnosed flu-like illness with breathing problems earlier this year. (It has since emerged that the son of one of them, usually based in Wuhan, had popped back to see his folks at Christmas and been trotted round a selection of drinks parties to see all their friends, so who knows?)
Fortunately almost all of them have since recovered and are now champing at the bit under house arrest. Spread their numbers across the area and it looks as if everyone should know someone with it; actually it's an exact correlation with the local bowls club/gardening circle/British Legion, while the rest of the town went virtually unscathed.
Not in our village.
It's not rocket science that in stuffed towns and cities with everyone so close together, the statistics will show more people getting C19.
I had a great discussion with three neighbours yesterday, all of us quite a way apart, and well over the 6'8" threshold, as our garden wall backs onto the churchyard, so lots of people stroll around most of the day!
It was all rather pleasant really, especially as all three are chums! I finished up giving two courgette plants away too...
It's now fairly obvious all the politicians and medical advisers panicked, over what is turning out to be not much worse (on average, overall) than normal winter flu.
Have we all forgotten how many elderly and infirm people die usually in winter, especially as the last two winters have been mild and therefore not carried off so many?
So, no friends or family affected here in Kent, despite its proximity to The Great Wen.
As I'm retired, the appalling economic damage will not affect me directly, but it's very serious for my children (now relying on "the bank of dad"). Indirectly, more will perish from the lock-down's knock-on affects than from CV19.
My wife has met just one elderly lady who was definitely infected with the virus. It was a very brief meeting, in accordance with government guidelines. My wife commended her to her maker, then sent her on her way before briefly commiserating with her daughter and returning home.
Apart from that, nothing but rumours and speculation in our Wealden parish.
I know of one person who has been in hospital on the critical list and was released just a few days ago, but he's in Holland, I don't know of any cases in the village or within close friends and relatives.
According to the Zoe app, in rural areas symptomatic COVID hits roughly 2% of people
https://covid.joinzoe.com
In my area it is 1.3% based on 4865 users of the app
In my very widest circle of people I've met once or twice and am in occasional email contact with, one has actually died. But he also was being treated for cancer (no idea what kind).
Macheath - my impression is that everyone should know someone with it, but many cases seem to be like yours - undiagnosed flu-like illness from which people recovered.
Scrobs - that's right, it isn't rocket science. Population density seems to be important as we'd expect.
Ed - "It's now fairly obvious all the politicians and medical advisers panicked, over what is turning out to be not much worse (on average, overall) than normal winter flu."
That's my default position at the moment. Maybe a worse than normal but not catastrophically so.
Sam and Woodsy - maybe you are protected by low population density too. That seems to be an important part of the picture.
Graeme - thanks, interesting site. In our area it is 0.8% based on 1883 people.
Mark - I suppose cancer complicates things if immune systems are compromised. Or any other condition where it is compromised.
I hope you encourage people to use that app. It will tell us more than the Govt and NHS ever will.
I'm 65 years old, one of the youngest members of my bowls club. Most winters see me at a few funerals and sending condolences to relatives of other passed friends. This winter there have been slightly fewer deaths, none of which are Covid related. Maybe we've stumbled upon a cure for seasonal flu?
Andy - we are in the regular funerals phase too, but this winter there haven't been any.
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