The number of deaths from coronavirus could reach 100,000 in the UK by the end of this year if a gradual lockdown is implemented just to shield the elderly, Professor Neil Ferguson warned yesterday.
The Imperial College epidemiologist said it was impossible to send the young and healthy back to work while keeping the vulnerable in lockdown without seeing a huge increase in deaths...
Professor Ferguson said some degree of social isolation will continue to be required until a vaccine to the killer bug is released, which Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab today said was unlikely to happen until 2021.
He was asked if young people could be allowed out of lockdown if the tough measures have suppressed the infection rate enough and the Government has increased NHS capacity to a sufficient degree.
Professor Ferguson told UnHerd: 'In practical terms, you would require a very high level of effective shielding for that to be a viable strategy.
Not wishing to be too cynical and scientifically it is a very difficult position, but this has the flavour of a ploy to me. Politically, lockdown until a vaccine is developed is a hopelessly unattractive option. Many more deaths will happen anyway so this take on the situation is most unlikely to be proved entirely wrong. A ploy? Feels like one to me.
In the end decision-makers have to take a sideways look at what everyone else is doing then make a guess as to the best policy move. Experts can be remarkably unhelpful.
7 comments:
100,000 deaths sounds like an utter catastrophe; just imagine a battlefield or a natural disaster like an earthquake, etc.
But then we remember that the overall number of UK deaths from all causes is in excess of 600,000; and many of the corona virus casualties would have been in that number anyway, or following close behind in succeeding years. And that would depress the mortality rate in those years, of course. So maybe up by 10% or so?
Then we remember that the most British and moral thing about us, the sacred cult that defines the worthiness of anyone to govern the UK, is our wonderful NHS.
And then we realise that it's really about not politically embarrassing Boris and co. Because our current and future tax take will be so low that we are killing the NHS anyway.
Only four more days till we can have another nice clap....
Most certainly a ploy, our lives in their hands, not our own.
Neil is a mathematician and computer modeller.
Somehow, I'm uncomfortable about the incessant barracking to the public, about protecting the NHS.
It's not the NHS I worry about, it's actually Mrs O'Blene and me, plus all my friends and family...
We've paid many hundreds of pounds into the NHS over the years, and they are a reliable, fine body of people, give and take a lot of their pen-pushers and the like, but to transfer responsibility to the public is not easy, especially if they are just thick or stupid, and the fact remains that normal citizens are not being respected just because the NHS may not be able to cope.
It's a difficult conundrum, and I'm still wrestling with the issue, but is a national organisation more important than an individual?
" Experts can be remarkably unhelpful."
Especially ones with a history of being utterly wrong............
This from the man whose software model's mortality predictions were so large they panicked the politicians.
He has form: the same erroneous software produced the same inaccuracies about SARS.
Ferguson is like someone shouting "Fire" in a theatre and should be ignored - there are plenty of rational models for CV19, which predict much better outcomes.
Sam - Boris comes across well but the lockdown looks increasingly absurd. We seem to be stuck with the virus whatever we do and may as well get used to it.
James - that's the chilling aspect.
Anon - I believe he started out in physics but seems to have far too much faith in the power of mathematical models.
Scrobs - we seem to be stuck with the NHS and stuck with the propaganda surrounding it.
Sobers - that's what mystifies me. I can't imagine being that unsuccessful at something and sticking with it.
Ed - it's weird because his failures are in the public domain.
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