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Thursday 30 April 2020

Europe not doing too well



Deaths Population Deaths per
(Million) Million
Belgium 7,501 11.42 657
Spain 24,275 46.72 520
Italy 27,682 60.43 458
United Kingdom 26,097 66.49 393
France 24,121 66.99 360
Netherlands 4,711 17.23 273
Ireland 1,190 4.85 245
Sweden 2,462 10.18 242
Switzerland 1,716 8.52 201
United States 60,908 327.17 186

8 comments:

Ed P said...

So all the doom-laden forecasts of 3% - 12% of the infected dying were very wrong - the worst rate in your list, Belgium, has just 0.0657% (657ppm)
And when the figures have been revised, to remove all those deaths noted as due to CV19, when they were WITH, not from CV19, it'll look like a slightly worse than usual flu season.
Have we destroyed the economy and given up our hard-won rights just for this?

Sam Vega said...

If we'd stayed in the EU, we could have had coordinated Euro-clapping, which would have sorted it all out by now.

Scrobs. said...

One stat should be, that if social distancing is actually being carried out, it stands to reason that the population is also avoiding the normal flu, colds etc, which get worse over the winter, so we may well be better off for that.

Senora O'Blene regularly starts a cough around Christmas, which begins to peter out around now, and lots of chums around here seem to be the same. I used to blame it on the Capstan Full Strength, but as we're down to fifty a day each now, it's not so bad...(not)!

Graeme said...

Loads of graphs but you get the impression that no one really understands them, as in why they have that shape and how we can change them

A K Haart said...

Ed - I'm sure much effort will go into bigging up the pandemic and maybe people will see through that, but I'm not sure they will.

Sam - maybe the Euro-clap could still arrive.

Scrobs - it seems to be a winter thing. Perhaps the vitamin D enthusiasts are right.

Graeme - yes, it is fairly obvious that we lack people with genuine experience to make good reliable sense of it. Which is no surprise but it should be admitted.

Blissex said...

Those numbers are meaningless -- they are not adjusted for time since the pandemic began to manifest in that country.

«So all the doom-laden forecasts of 3% - 12% of the infected dying were very wrong - the worst rate in your list, Belgium, has just 0.0657% (657ppm)»

The reported rate is not deaths per million infected, but per million population, infected or not. The number of infected has been contained by various lockdown regimes, the purpose of which is indeed to keep the number of infected low.

That said the chinese statistics on death rates are probably an overestimate for the european case, especially for older people, because:

* The peak of the infection in China was during some still rather cold months.

* Older people in China went through terrible times during the Great Leap Forward (the oldest) and the Cultural Revolution, and China was still a very poor country until the 1990s, so the constitution of the older generation is probably a lot more fragile than that of most european oldies.

Graeme said...

Maybe Maurizio could be of interest
https://twitter.com/omnologos/status/1255284217245827073?s=19

A K Haart said...

Blissex - the data will be adjusted in all kinds of ways but as things are at the moment I prefer to leave it as it is.

Graeme - a battle of narratives will build up and up.