Met Office supercomputer gives 14-day weather forecast more accurate than ever
Better weather forecasts are on the way, the Met Office says, thanks to its new 'supercomputer', which will detail estimates up to two weeks in advance. The new system can perform 60 quadrillion calculations per second, and was launched on Monday.
It is expected to make rainfall predictions more accurate, and has been described as "the world's first cloud-based supercomputer dedicated to weather and climate science."
Yesterday evening at roughly 9pm in our bit of Derbyshire, the Met Office weather forecast claimed a rainfall probability of <5%. Oddly enough Mrs H and I were inclined to doubt the accuracy of the forecast because our sceptical ears detected the patter of light rain on the window.
I opened the back door and sure enough it was raining, the patio was already wet. I'd known rain was likely anyway after checking the weather radar map half an hour earlier.
Of course my rainfall observation was very close to cheating, because I checked the weather radar and looked out of the back door, I didn't do 60 quadrillion calculations per second.
Of course my rainfall observation was very close to cheating, because I checked the weather radar and looked out of the back door, I didn't do 60 quadrillion calculations per second.
6 comments:
The best predictor of rain is a turbo-charged pine cone, or look at some hard-working cows and their families, and see if they are lying down.
Long ago when I was young, a star meteorologist delivered a seminar in the university department where I worked, to show off his latest, super state-of-the-art numerical methods. A colleague leaned over to me and whispered "You do more advanced stuff than this, don't you?" "Yes!"
Sam - those turbo-charged pine cones are a real threat to the Met Office, I can see them being banned. The sky is a pretty good guide too, or it used to be when we noticed these things.
dearieme - the obvious power of Met Office PR makes me wonder if the talented ones who could do more advanced stuff have left, or never even arrived to take the place of retired meteorologists who knew a thing or two about the weather.
Sam - the cows lying down may not necessarily be an accurate method.
Many years ago, I explained this theory to my daughter. One day, driving past a field with cows in it, my daughter raised this subject, and asked why some where laying down, and some were standing up? Dad thinking, I replied, "Scattered showers'.
Coat obtained.
If the MET can't predict the weather with 60 quadrillion calculations per second, think how the NHS are getting along with Window XP
Anon - I've always had my doubts about the method, but "Scattered showers" is a good explanation when cows don't behave.
Bucko - ha ha, good point, not very well is my impression.
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