Friday, 17 August 2012

A new low?

Round about mid-September, the annual melt of Arctic sea-ice should go into reverse as the area of ice begins to increase again after the summer.
See here.

Many people are watching the Arctic sea-ice cycle because a complete summer melt has been predicted for years as a claimed consequence of global warming. Even the blessed Sir David Attenborough alluded to it.

Although the Arctic melt probably has as much to do with winds and ocean currents as global temperatures, it tends to be used as a totem of apocalyptic climate change. Or it was until it stopped melting.

Are we about to reach a new Arctic sea ice low by mid-September? It seems to me that there are two possibilities here:-

  • If the ice extent reaches a new low it will be hailed as an apocalyptic indicator of climate change. 
  • If the ice extent doesn’t reach a new low  it will be hailed as an apocalyptic indicator of climate change

I don't know what the Arctic will do this September, but it looks as if a new low is on the cards. If so, the the propaganda will reach a new low too. 

In a few weeks we’ll know how low - in both senses.


James Higham said...

Northwest passage is a good indicator too.

Demetrius said...

On the other hand if three biggish volcanoes go up within a few months of each other we could all freeze. I'm keeping my old woollies.

A K Haart said...

James - it is.

Demetrius - yes, a bigger risk than global warming. People would die.