The Monty Hall Problem

I enjoy problems like this. They remind us that probability can be counter-intuitive.

Monday Sermon

I’d like to use this post as an opportunity to bring to your attention the plight of a special group of people.

Who are they? Allow me to explain.

You see, as we wend our way through life’s many vicissitudes, it is worth bearing in mind that not everyone has the freedom to use logic, reason or facts when they argue their case. Some, through no fault of their own are forced into using the shameful expedient of special pleading.

In so doing they have to suffer ridicule, sarcasm and satire from those with privileged access to sound arguments. Is that fair? Is that equitable?

We have a huge problem in the largely unrecognised plight of special pleaders, especially when we include the government, MPs, lawyers, landlords, bankers, the arms industry, large charities, the BBC, the NHS, high street retailers, the CBI, house builders, landowners, local government, trade unions, quangos, minorities, car makers, energy companies, green businesses, climate scientists, environmentalists, the EU, the UN, developing countries and major political parties.

So the next time you have free and unfettered access to logic, reason and facts, try to remember those who have none of these natural advantages. Try to remember those unfortunates who must resort to special pleading.

Bear them in your thoughts when next you shred one of their arguments with a simple piece of logic. Stop for a moment if you will in your headlong rush to be reasonable. Pause for a while and ask yourself if it is right that not everyone has access to reason.

Please put yourself in their shoes, if only for a brief, irrational moment.

Wordplay - logic

Aristotle - from Wikipedia

What is logic?

Well I for one find it a rather odd business, this mish-mash of ideas we call logic. Aristotle made a start with his syllogisms, but over two thousand years later logicians tried to turn it into a game of symbols and rules so they could run off with it and build careers. Electronics engineers build computers with it, while politicians and climate scientists never use it at all.

The online Oxford dictionary defines logic as:-

noun

[mass noun]
1 reasoning conducted or assessed according to strict principles of validity:experience is a better guide to this than deductive logicthe logic of the argument is faulty

• a particular system or codification of the principles of proof and inference:Aristotelian logic
• the systematic use of symbolic and mathematical techniques to determine the forms of valid deductive argument.
• the quality of being justifiable by reason:there seemed to be a lack of logic in his remarks
• (the logic of) the course of action suggested by or following as a necessary consequence of:the logic of private competition was to replace small firms by larger firms

2 a system or set of principles underlying the arrangements of elements in a computer or electronic device so as to perform a specified task.

• logical operations collectively.

So logic is, within certain boundaries, a move in the argument game, a rather feeble prop we use in whatever way seems most convincing.

Yet it seems to me that logic has more to offer if only we explore  its possibilities, loosen it up and reconnect it with the real world. This is what Spinoza tried to do, but Newton came along and distracted us with his mathematics and mechanistic science of cause and effect. I can't help thinking we could have made more of logic and less of Newton's science, so in future posts I'll make a tentative attempt to expand a little on what might have been.