The growth we don't need

Jonathan Eida has a useful TPA piece on what seems like the inexorable growth of the Civil Service and the humongous liabilities which come with it. Depressing but worth reading as there is no obvious prospect of Andrew Burnham doing anything about it.


The true cost of the civil service is worse than you think

The waistband on the trousers of the civil service continues to stretch as the Whitehall blob expands year after year. The prime minister may come and go, but the appetite for a larger, more active state appears remarkably constant. Andy Burnham is no exception, with his “Number 10 North” proposal being just the latest pretext for another layer of bureaucracy.

Since the government began publishing comparable civil service workforce data in 2016, headcount has risen by a shocking 33.3 per cent.

Between March 2016 and March 2026, civil service employment increased by 139,485, from 418,340 to 557,825. In the last year alone, the number of civil servants rose by 8,165, or 1.5 per cent, from 549,660 in March 2025 to 557,825 in March 2026. That rate of growth was two and a half times the 0.6 per cent increase in total public sector headcount over the same period.

Pants

Prisons will still function under plans to turn laundries into cells – minister

Justice Secretary Alex Norris said hundreds of urgently-needed places would be created by converting storerooms and offices.

The Justice Secretary has insisted prisons will “still function properly” amid concerns over Government plans to turn laundries into cells in a bid to tackle overcrowding.

Alex Norris said “hundreds of places” would be created by converting existing spaces inside prisons into accommodation.


The Biggest Prison Building Programme Since the Victorians — But Will It Be Enough?

The government is building prisons at a pace not seen since the Victorian era. Ministers have described the ambition as delivering 14,000 additional prison places by 2031, with around 2,900 already completed. It is a significant and expensive commitment — an acknowledgment that the prison estate of England and Wales is so far below what the system requires that only a major capital investment programme can close the gap.

But the context in which this building programme sits is one of the most challenging in the recent history of English criminal justice. The previous government committed to 20,000 new prison places by the mid-2020s. By September 2024, approximately 6,500 had been delivered — less than a third of the target, years late, and 80 per cent over the original budget projection. The current programme is running against the backdrop of that failure, and the question of whether 14,000 places by 2031 is sufficient — let alone achievable — is one that penal reformers, academics, and parliamentary committees have pressed government to answer clearly.

Green activists want to take Polanski down a dark road

Eliot Wilson has a grimly entertaining City AM piece on Zack Polanski and his imbecile Green Party. Entertaining because Polanski and his Greens are so silly. Grim because he constantly reminds us that a significant number of voters are deceived by abjectly silly rhetoric. 

Green activists want to take Polanski down a dark road

The Greens’ absolutism is bad for politics, and Polanski too. Those who police dogma see heretics everywhere, even at the top, writes Eliot Wilson

Zack Polanski, leader of the Green Party of England and Wales, is easy to dislike. There is something preposterous and confected about him, and it is no surprise that he has a background in acting.

He is suffocatingly earnest and demonstrates armour-plated self-belief even when pronouncing the most implausible silliness. He once explained that, as Prime Minister, he would “keep pushing for negotiation” with President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine; last November he told Sky News’s Trevor Philllips that “we should never leave the negotiating table” and that he would persuade Putin to give up Russia’s nuclear weapons.

It is not easy to imagine the former KGB colonel who has ruled Russia since the last millennium being outfoxed by a man who once taught at the National Centre for Circus Arts, but Polanski continued crossly that “you could have laughed at the point of Nelson Mandela negotiating with the ANC”.


The whole piece is well worth reading. Depressing but well worth reading - this is the world in which we are doomed to live.

Rory Sutherland, vice-chairman of Ogilvy UK, talks about “album politics”. “A kind of artificial worldview where you have to buy the entire album, as it were… in other words, it’s not just that you have left-wing opinions, you have to buy into every single opinion”.

It is not politics so much as theology, and soi-disant “progressives” are as certain as any mediaeval cleric of St Cyprian’s mantra, extra ecclesiastical nulla salus. If a political party concentrates on these deeply emotive issues on which they see voters as saved or damned, friends or enemies, wanting to force repentance rather than descending to the dust in the arena of persuasion, we should expect a bitter, moralising general election campaign. It is bad news for public discourse, bad news for any engagement or generosity of spirit.

But not cowboy politics

Burnham takes aim at 'cowboy builders' with new crackdown

• Andy Burnham has unveiled new plans to tackle rogue tradespeople known as “cowboy builders” to protect consumers from unfair practices by private bailiffs.
• A government-backed register launching in September will help householders find trusted builders, while a milestone-linked payment system next week will prevent upfront costs.
• The Prime Minister stated that the measures aim to protect families from stress and financial losses while stopping dishonest builders from damaging the reputation of reliable traders.

Meanwhile, in the land of cowboy politics...

HS2, Net Zero, mass immigration, creeping mass surveillance, constant health hectoring, useless university degrees, mountains of official twaddle, worthless promises, absurd levels of taxation, waste, incompetence, endless fiddling around the edges of decline....

and the BBC.

Europe made food abundant. Then Brussels decided to produce less

Richard Schenk has an interesting Brussels Signal piece on EU meddling with the production of what was once abundant in Europe - food. 

Well worth reading for Schenk's key point - the consequences of equating progress with producing less. It ties in with the the EU-Mercosur trade agreement.

Europe made food abundant. Then Brussels decided to produce less

The Common Agricultural Policy emerged from a Europe that remembered war scarcity. Europe created abundance so successfully that it eventually forgot why producing food mattered.

Farmers even became targets of resentment, supposedly bathing in EU subsidies. Yet agricultural support declined substantially relative to the European economy. Common Agricultural Policy spending fell from 0.54 per cent of EU GDP in the 1990s to 0.36 per cent in 2023, according to the Commission’s own figures.

Environmental protection is not the problem. Farmers have an obvious interest in fertile soil, reliable water and a functioning natural environment.

The problem begins when environmental ambitions become detached from producing food, or become entangled with a degrowth philosophy in which producing less is itself treated as progress.

The world looks different now

Amazon turning to Natural gas power plant for AI data center – To emit more CO2 ‘than any other power plant in the country’

Amazon is investing in a large-scale natural-gas-burning power plant as part of a huge data center in Texas, the company confirmed on Friday, a facility that could become the largest single source of climate pollution in the United States...

“The world looks different now than when we co-founded the climate pledge,” said Margaret Callahan, an Amazon spokeswoman. Still, “our commitment hasn’t changed,” she said.

Hmm  - there is not much difference here the UK.

MPs fear one key issue could end new PM's honeymoon period

The "Burnham bounce" has largely been driven by Green voters coming back to the fold. Labour MPs warn that spells trouble if more oil and gas is approved following a summer of extreme weather...

Climate conscious Labour MPs are concerned there is a lack of urgency from the government as the UK battles extreme heatwaves, drought and wildfires.

One For The Listening Prime Minster

National Audit Office -


The impact of fraud and error on public funds 2023-24

Fraud and error cost the taxpayer billions of pounds each year – but most of the potential loss goes undetected. Based on the Public Sector Fraud Authority’s (PSFA) methodology, we estimate that fraud and error cost the taxpayer £55 billion to £81 billion in 2023-24. Only a fraction of this is detected and known about – enabling investigation and recovery.

Ed on peculiar relationships

Ed Miliband blanks reporter asking him about previous comments calling Trump ‘racist’

In 2016, Miliband had been searing in his criticism of Trump during his first term as president.

He said: “The idea that we share values with a racist, misogynistic, self-confessed groper beggars belief.”

In following years, Miliband also said Trump had “lowered the bar for idiocy” and called out his “peculiar relationship with Russia and most of all with the truth.”

As Matthews asked Miliband about these comments, the foreign secretary gave the journalist no response.


As it's Ed Miliband we must expect some peculiar relationships with language, particularly his own words. He's an ambitious professional politician who may yet have his eye on No.10, but this was the language of progressive media with clicks to harvest. He may well wallow in the language privately, but airing it in public certainly "lowered the bar for idiocy".


In this stupid world most people never consider that a thing is good to be done unless it is done by their own set.

George Eliot - Middlemarch (1871-72)

Ed has never offered us any reason to think he is aware of a world beyond the narrow language of his his own set, yet we are invited to suppose he is a professional politician, currently filling the role of UK Foreign Secretary, one of the Great Offices of State.

Ensuring the government functions normally

Burnham heading on holiday two weeks after becoming prime minister

• Prime minister Andy Burnham is taking an overseas holiday after just over two weeks in office, having assumed the role on 20 July.
• Despite his absence from Downing Street, officials state he will remain in direct contact and continue meetings, ensuring the government functions normally.
• During his initial fortnight, Mr Burnham made numerous policy announcements, including pledges to remove VAT from electricity bills, end rough sleeping, and reinstate a £2 bus fare cap.
• He also initiated cross-party talks on social care, vowed to tackle small boat crossings, cut business rates for pubs, and established No 10 North.

Not much is it? Even if we search around for reasons to be positive, it's still not much. 

It's also worth mentioning that we don't want a government that functions 'normally', piddling around with trivial adjustments, petty restrictions and empty promises. We know the promises are empty because they always are - that's just one of the problems.

Maybe when Mr Burnham returns from his hols we'll see bets being taken on who could be the next Labour Prime Minister. 

BP legs it

SNP calls for 'decisive action' as BP reveals plan to sell North Sea operations

The firm announced on Friday its operations in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) would be “better positioned as part of another company”...

Responding to the news, UK Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh said: “I’m in close contact with BP and have made clear that my priority is ensuring that the workers and local community are protected during this sale process.

“The North Sea is a vital national asset and we will take a pragmatic approach, recognising that oil and gas will be part of our energy mix for years to come.

“I’m focused on doing right by the workers in the North Sea who have powered this country for generations.”


Another angle -


Tax Regime and Investment Climate

As opposed to the other major North Sea oil and gas producer Norway, Britain's tax regime on the industry in recent years has been marked by successive changes, decried by oil and gas companies for deterring investment.

"This decision is another stark reminder that confidence in the UK Continental Shelf has been badly shaken after years of policy uncertainty, punitive taxation and mixed messages about the future of the industry," said Russell Borthwick, chief of the Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce, which comprises many UK oil and gas producers.

As trust in the Church of England collapses

Rev Fergus Butler-Gallie has a very interesting Critic piece on the corrosive effect of managerialism within the Church of England. 

Missionaries, not management consultants

As trust in the Church of England collapses, its leaders are prescribing more of the very managerialism that created the problem

The dust is only just beginning to settle from General Synod. I know it might sound preposterous to talk about the Church of England’s parliament in terms redolent of a gunfight in the Old West: gunfights in the Old West were often conducted in a friendlier spirit.

There were the usual vicious fights about sex, as bishops said one thing and then voted in a completely different way. There was an exceptionally unedifying scrap over a report into the State of Israel, which has possibly done serious harm to interfaith relationships. There was even a bit of rancour about Net Zero. A full house for 2026 Britain!

It is often said that the Church doesn’t represent the nation any more. Au contraire: this Synod showed it was the perfect mirror to the badly governed, divided and petty nation which it seeks to serve.

The whole piece is well worth reading even for long-time outsiders - the problem is severe enough to be clearly visible from the outside. 

The lack of trust in this, the institution par excellence of the nation ought to be a matter of national concern. The Church of England is in a bad state and it is increasingly clear that it cannot be trusted to appoint the leaders or engender the culture required to get itself out of that mess. That isn’t just an internal Church problem but, once again, shows that the Church’s problems are the nation’s too.

I find it difficult to really understand what happened behind the scenes

New Schuman roundabout is 'worst' possible outcome, says architect

The symbolic EU plaza has become a barren concrete lagoon, after three years of building work

  

Plan                                          Outcome

The man who redesigned the iconic Schuman roundabout, at the heart of the European quarter, has delivered a scathing verdict on the final result.

“We ended up really with the square that nobody wanted,” said Francis De Wolf, the leading Belgian architect on the project, told Euractiv...

“Now it’s too late in a way,” he said. It’s very unrealistic to imagine the canopy can still be built, he said, as it would require extensive building work to attach the foundations to the tunnels beneath the roundabout. “You’d have to break open the whole square again.”

De Wolf is baffled about how the project turned out so badly. “I’m not a politician … and I find it difficult to really understand what happened behind the scenes.”

The Kakistocracy

David King has a whimsical Quadrant piece on Australia as a Kakistocracy, entangled as it still is in Net Zero and the the ludicrous folly of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS).

The whole piece is well worth reading as we in the UK wonder if Miatta Fahnbulleh will turn out to be merely another servant of the UK Kakistocracy and  just as absurdly destructive as Ed Miliband.

An Ironic Blessing of ‘Atrocious Science’

While the tide finally seems to be turning in regard to realization of the futility of “Net Zero” – not only on economic grounds, but also because there is compelling scientific evidence that if accomplished it would have negligible effect on climate – there is an obstinate vocal rump who cannot, or just do not want to accept the scientific reality. Not least amongst them are our Chris Bowen and the UK’s Ed Milliband, two ministers driving policy agendas that amount to economic euthanasia.

The case against anthropogenic emissions having a material effect on climate spans observational data, theoretical analysis, and empirical (laboratory) testing ( see The Science is Settled); counter arguments appear to rely entirely on computer modeling of temperature even though model predictions have failed to match observed temperatures in both forecast and, surprisingly, hindcast. Sadly, persistence with with decarbonization/net zero policy agendas suggests that my earlier assessment that the Lucky Country is now a Kakistocracy (Green Idiocy’s Consequences) is increasingly apposite. These agendas have polluted our taxation systems, education priorities, corporate reporting obligations, research funding priorities, and more.

Who pays for Manchesterism?

Shimeon Lee has a useful Critic piece on some of the ways in which Andrew Burnham's notion of “Manchesterism” is mostly about wasting other people's money. 

The whole piece is well worth reading for any UK citizen who feels unduly cheerful at the moment.


Who pays for Manchesterism?

Burnham spent nine years extracting money from Westminster, now he’ll be reaching directly into taxpayers’ pockets

Andy Burnham is now Prime Minister, and the country soon to discover what “Manchesterism” means when applied to the British state. Burnham’s nine years as mayor, alongside his earlier national record, offer a clear guide to the instincts he is likely to bring to No.10: a willingness to raise taxes, expand the state and prioritise policies that sound good but ultimately deliver poor value for money.

It is revealing that after being elected mayor in 2017, one of Burnham’s first acts was to impose a new charge on households in Greater Manchester. The new mayoral precept was initially set at £8 for the average band D property, funding the mayoral operation, including Burnham’s £110,000 salary. As so often happens with new charges, it did not remain modest for long. The charge more than doubled the following year, rising again in 2020-21, 2022-23, 2025-26 and 2026-27. By the time Burnham resigned to contest the Makerfield by-election, it had risen to £61.75, nearly eight times the original amount in less than a decade.

As residents paid more, the mayor built an increasingly elaborate network of advisers, commissioners and panels funded by taxpayers. These included a young person’s advisor paid £500 per day, a transport commissioner and an active travel commissioner each paid £650 per day, and an LGBTQ+ advisor paid £177 per day. He also established seven equality panels facilitated by “culturally appropriate organisations” which cost £392,435 a year. Taxpayers can only speculate how much larger that ecosystem could become when he takes control of Whitehall.

The Burnham regime seems to be crumbling already

Trump 'will not forget' Miliband criticism as appointment sparks anger

• Ed Miliband's appointment as Foreign Secretary under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham has caused the White House to be “deeply concerned.”
• Sources close to President Donald Trump warn he "will not forget" Miliband's past scathing criticisms, including calling him a "racist, misogynistic, self-confessed groper."
• Miliband is viewed in Washington as an "unreasonable 'nut zero' extremist" due to his climate stance and perceived blocking of North Sea oil production.

Naturally Miliband will emit some ameliorative language to downplay his inability to govern his tongue, particularly in a role where this matters. It's a poor appointment though, a posturing extremist such as Ed Miliband should have been shown the door.

It's an indication that the Burnham regime is already showing significant cracks. He does not have an abundance of pragmatic and capable people free from damaging ideologies and seems to be unaware of it. Or he lacks the political courage to do anything about it. Cracks either way.

Nothing to do with me

PM Mark Carney Blames Canada Wildfires on — ‘Climate Change Is Everyone’s Responsibility’

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney dismissed the possibility that his government could be doing more to contain the out-of-control wildfires ravaging Ontario this week and sending toxic smoke down to flood much of the American Midwest and Northeast, demanding the United States do more to fight alleged “climate change.”

The comments, made during a press conference in Ontario, are Carney’s first in the aftermath of a torrent of outrage in the United States as millions of people were told not to leave their homes on Thursday to avoid becoming sick from inhaling Canadian fire smoke. Disillusion at the inaction by the Canadian government is also reportedly growing among the First Nations communities most directly affected by the fires, including some that have burned to the ground entirely and found little to no support from Ottawa.

Canada’s extensive forests have traditionally experienced regular summer fire seasons, controlled through indigenous methods such as controlled burns and the removal of dry, dead tree branches and other material that serves as kindling for large fires. In the past decade, as the Canadian government has largely abandoned forest management as a national policy, these fires have grown larger, more dangerous, and more polluting. The Canadian government has no federal emergency response agency and no national fire authority, leaving the country’s provinces on their own to respond to the fires.

What an odious chap Carney is, but he has at least confirmed what he is, a man who will never accept responsibility for anything he may righteously choose to disown. He has also confirmed that this is a major political attraction of the climate game, the adaptable righteousness.

Would Andrew Burnham accept at least some responsibility in similar circumstances? Probably not.

Expect gibberish and gesticulation

Trump threatens Canada with tariffs for smoke blanketing the US

President Donald Trump on Friday threatened to impose additional tariffs on Canada, blaming the country for wildfire smoke that has blanketed large swaths of the United States.

“We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests, and Brush therein, and the United States is being unnecessarily invaded by filthy, polluted, and unhealthy air, the quality of which is dangerous, and totally unacceptable,” the Republican president wrote on Truth Social Friday afternoon.

Trump added that he planned to call Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss how his government intends to respond.

Trump won't get much out of Carney apart from gibberish - and maybe some gesticulation.

It was a mere basic inability to front novel situations which was somehow in the dragoman; he retreated from everything difficult in a smoke of gibberish and gesticulation.

Stephen Crane - Active Service (1899)

Expect to be poorer

McFadden: Labour cannot ‘just write cheques’ to benefit claimants

Pat McFadden has declared that Labour must stop “simply writing a cheque” to benefit claimants...

More than eight million people are claiming Universal Credit, according to the Department for Work and Pensions, up by 830,000 in the space of a year.

Britain’s ballooning welfare bill is set to rise by £74bn in the next four years to reach £406bn by the end of the decade.

However, Sir Keir Starmer’s attempts to cut the welfare bill by £5bn last summer prompted a backbench revolt by more than 100 Labour MPs. The Prime Minister was eventually forced to climb down on the measure and introduce a number of reviews instead...

Mr McFadden has privately complained about the attitude towards welfare in Labour ranks. The publication of the Mandelson files last month revealed that he had complained to the peer: “Every meeting I have is, ‘Who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others?’”


Some have said that McFadden would like to be Chancellor, but Andrew Burnham is just the chap to do less than nothing about this problem. 

Expect to be poorer seems to be the message.

Despite Ed's efforts

Fossl fuels at record levels worldwide and consumption continues to rise

In 2025, humanity consumed more oil, natural gas and coal worldwide than ever before. This is shown by the Energy Institute's new Statistical Review of World Energy, which was published in London at the end of June. At the same time, global emissions rose to more than 41 billion tons of CO2 equivalents. Although the expansion of solar and wind power accelerated significantly, energy demand grew even more strongly. That is why, despite the energy transition, fossil fuels remain the foundation of global supply in energy generation.

Fossil fuels continue to determine energy production worldwide

Global energy production reached around 600.3 exajoules in 2025. Renewable energies also grew strongly, but their share of the overall system remained limited. Solar, wind, hydropower and other renewable sources together accounted for 51.6 exajoules. By comparison, Germany needs about 10 exajoules per year. Data centers alone have already consumed 2.8 exajoules worldwide.

Here in the UK there isn't much to say about this. We already know about Ed Miliband, Net Zero, political stupidity and malice.

Governing is hard

Reeves warns Burnham ‘governing is hard’ and says he must have a plan

Rachel Reeves has warned Andy Burnham he needs to have a proper plan for government when he enters Downing Street in just over a week’s time.

In what is likely to be her last interview as chancellor, she appeared to concede her hopes of staying in the role were over and told the PM-in-waiting “governing is hard in Britain”.

During an appearance on the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg programme, she said: “It is important that when Andy walks through that door, that he has a worked-through plan, because governing is hard in Britain, and lots of lots of challenges and shocks will come his way.

“What is really important is that him and his team are really clear about what they want to achieve. As those shocks come along, he needs to stay laser-focused on those things that have always motivated him, have always driven him, and are the reason why he wants to lead our great country.”

It's good that "laser-focused" is in there, we wouldn't want to lose that in the new regime. Maybe it  could be part of Burnham's plan, along with a scattering of "turbocharged" and "good for Britain" and even "five point plan".

The language is something to look forward to as Mr Burnham finds out that governing is indeed hard. The carefully casual attire may not be enough for someone who seems to be shallow, politically unimaginative and weak on detail.

But possibly laser-focused.