Will Burnham now go for an early election? New mega-poll gives Labour a 56-seat Commons majority
Labour would win a 56-seat majority if a general election were held tomorrow as the party enjoys a reversal in fortunes under Andy Burnham, a new mega-poll shows.
Latest research by Electoral Calculus, based on Find Out Now surveys, finds Labour would win 353 seats in the House of Commons, far ahead of the Tories on 90 seats.
Who would win a UK general election today, on the latest polls
Data through 15 October 2026
If an election were held today, the PollCheck seat model projects Labour as the largest party on 301 seats, 25 short of a majority, with Conservatives on 140, Lib Dems on 64 and the Reform UK on 64. 326 of 650 seats are needed for a majority.
Data through 15 October 2026
If an election were held today, the PollCheck seat model projects Labour as the largest party on 301 seats, 25 short of a majority, with Conservatives on 140, Lib Dems on 64 and the Reform UK on 64. 326 of 650 seats are needed for a majority.
4 comments:
To win a majority, but not an outright majority, and allow Reform to have 64 seats? Not quite as tempting (to Labour) as some might hope. And Labour would still have to deal with the hole they are busily digging.
DJ - I agree, it's not easy to see why Labour is supposedly tempted by a general election. They must know that Burnham isn't impressive, but maybe the prospect of a fresh start then another five years is seen as worth the risk.
Polls - which have never been shown to be wrong.
Tammly - as accurate as climate predictions.
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