Friday, 18 March 2022
Ukraine’s other battle
Louis T. March has an interesting Mercatornet piece on Ukraine's dismal demographic prospects.
Tired of hearing about Ukraine? Thought so. But if you follow demography, Ukraine is an interesting case, though a real basket case. Yours truly just has to weigh in...
Before February 24, the three top issues of concern in Ukraine were the war raging in eastern Ukraine (2 million displaced persons), pervasive corruption (in government and business) and emigration. The last was particularly vexing. In fact, the steady stream of people leaving the country inspired The Atlantic to run a piece last year headlined “Ukraine’s Quiet Depopulation Crisis”:
In a United Nations study, the top 10 countries ranked by their projected population decline over the next 30 years are all in post-socialist Eastern Europe, an area characterized by low birth rates, small numbers of immigrants, and large numbers of departing citizens.
In a wider context, demographic decline feels like a slow disaster we never get to grips with and the mainstream media generally ignore. It seems to be particularly acute in Ukraine though. The whole piece is well worth reading as a diversion from the war itself.
Chaotic conditions in Ukraine make it hard to compile accurate statistics. Ukraine’s estimated death rate (deaths per 1,000 people within one year) is between 14.7 and 16.3, one of the world’s highest. The birth rate, one of the world’s lowest, is estimated from 8.1 to 11.0.
The most widely agreed-upon figure on the fertility rate is 1.23, one of the lowest in Europe. The last time Ukraine had replacement-level fertility (2.1) was in 1987. Infant mortality hovers between 6.3 to 7.1, the third highest in Europe behind Albania and Moldova.
Well before the 2014 coup and the 2022 invasion, Ukraine was already locked in the vise-grip of chronic modernism. With falling fertility, low life expectancy and one of the highest emigration rates on the planet, if “demography is destiny,” it doesn’t look good.
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5 comments:
Maybe the successors to the Socialist Republics have the problem particularly badly but it seems to infest all the advanced countries and some others.
Specific examples: S Korea 1.05, Italy 1.27, Japan 1.36, UK 1.65, China 1.70, USA 1.70
By contrast: Nigeria 5.31, Somalia 5.98, Niger 6.82.
Demography is destiny.
Is fear of a declining population based on anything more than the idea that there will be insufficient young people to look after us ( physically and via taxes) when we get old?
If the alternative is ever-increasing overcrowding and mass immigration, then I'd rather die in peace, thanks. Being fed pap by Nigerians while sitting in a home in that London suburb called Winchester does not appeal.
SV: there'll be robotic carers soon, to wash & feed us, wipe our bottoms and listen to the daily-repeated stories (whilst pretending they haven't heard it all before). So a diminishing UK population will not be a problem!
But the world population is now 7.934 billion, growing at 17.3 million pa, so will exceed 8 billion by 2026. Those African and Asian countries unwilling or unable to curb their excessive growth face mass starvation, exacerbated by rising costs of fuel, food stuffs, etc. The NWO/WEF/Great Reset plans are underway: these rely on reducing world population significantly to achieve their aims. Perhaps the next release of a killer bug will work on a different demographic, having already targeted and eliminated many older people (who are considered unproductive, a burden on society, selfishly staying in houses which could be reallocated, etc.) with the present viral thingy. I will not be surprised if the next one hits where population growth is highest and youngest. So you may not get any Nigerians feeding you pap - they'll all be dead.
The thought that Nigerians will be dying through malnutrition lack of health care etc as a way of reducing world population is unlikely, if somewhere like Ukraine is already depopulating and already has an exodus to other lands what is to stop Nigerians and others from simply forcing the issue and doing the same, after all the Western countries say we need more immigrants so I am sure they will oblige in spades.
Bigger dinghys, perhaps the now defunct P&O fleet could help out.
dearieme - yes it does seem to infest all the advanced countries. I have wondered if many of them would like to see a significant influx of educated Ukrainians for that reason.
Sam - that's my view. Maybe a way to end it all with some dignity too.
Ed - Japan seems to be keen on robotic carers as the way to cope with an ageing population. There should be plenty of food though, if atmospheric CO2 concentration keeps going up to give agriculture a boost.
Wiggia - Nigeria seems to have a major population problem so exporting it must be a no-brainer for them. What we do about it I don't know.
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