Trump's move

For most of us, some high profile incidents do not come with enough information to make a worthwhile judgement. Key information is missing. If we join a public debate we risk doing so from a position of ignorance. Doesn't stop people of course.

The recent chemical attack in Syria and the Sergei and Yulia Skripal poisoning for example. There isn't enough information for most of us to be reasonably certain that we are not being deceived in one way or another. Which is to be expected but browsing the internet suggests a vast number of media people manage to be well-informed without key information, as if a pre-existing standpoint provides enough perspective for their readers. Perhaps it does.

To my mind the best we can do is to assess the moves being made by the main actors. The moves are fairly visible even if somewhat obscured by whatever is going on behind the scenes. For example the international position of Mr Putin seems to have taken a few knocks. That is visible. Not so long ago he could be presented as an urbane and intelligent but ruthless leader who was democratically elected. Elected unfairly perhaps but still elected. That was visible too.

Now he seems more like an international thug who tried to kill an old enemy by using a nerve toxin on foreign soil and who condoned the use of chemical warfare against civilians in Syria. This may or may not be the case – we don’t have the key information but the visible game runs against him. Meanwhile Donald Trump seems to have positioned himself as an international referee with a big stick.

Of course one cannot demonstrate this satisfactorily via public information and many of those with a pre-existing standpoint won’t see it this way at all, but amid the swirl of confusion and opinion, moods and perspectives may be changing. It must be an appalling prospect for his shouty opponents, but Trump may be a competent president. Even worse – he may be very competent.

From this same perspective we have the embarrassing irrelevance of the dear old EU. It needs a counter to Trump and it doesn’t have one. Not only that but apparently doesn’t yet see that it needs one.

Naturally things may change and may begin changing tomorrow because new perceptions can evolve quickly and powerful forces try to make sure they evolve in their favour. In which case Donald Trump’s regime is one of those powerful forces because behind the bluster his moves frequently turn out much better than his detractors expected.

We may not know what is said behind closed doors but this is where we do have some information – the moves and the players making those moves. Donald Trump plays the game unconventionally, but he seems to be a tough opponent. I certainly wouldn't bet against him.