Sunday, 2 February 2014

Exit strategy

It has been obvious for some time that institutions and individuals peddling climate apocalypse may be in need of an exit strategy in case the temperature hiatus continues. Such an obvious lack of predicted warming is a serious hole in the CO2 theory. Well – another serious hole anyway.

As the temperature standstill continues, I sometimes ask myself how I’d react if happened to be a working climate scientist with no immediate prospect of retirement or an alternative career. I think I’d have two pressing issues to deal with.

Firstly I’d need to ensure that my adherence to the CO2 narrative was nuanced. Probably not a problem because working climate scientists will have their political antennae just like everyone else.

Secondly I would not want to miss out on some fascinating new lines of research merely because I still had the CO2 theory hanging round my neck like the Ancient Mariner’s dead albatross.

Of the two, I suspect the second motive may be less powerful than we might generally assume. Flogging a dead horse may be boring and frustrating and the grass may now seem a good deal greener on the other side of the fence, but only for some. I have no doubt that many a hack scientist couldn’t care less.

Even so, imagine the private conversations over lunch. Picture the boredom engendered by a theory that just doesn’t deliver, the lack of professional satisfaction, the thwarting of scientific curiosity – and worst of all the possibility that one might be drifting into a professional dead-end where the dread spectre of redundancy lurks.

Obviously I don’t know if such possible undercurrents are real or not, but I’d be astounded if something of the kind isn’t going on.

It would be unprecedented.


Michael said...

Politicians peddling info they don't understand, and cleverer people picking up on their foibles equals a market.

Sobers said...

We are already seeing it.The piece on the BBC website the other day about the inactive sun and the consequences thereof would never have seen the light of day a few years ago. No scientist would have been prepared to stick his head above the parapet and suggest that a quiet sun might mean cooler temperatures. Of course there was the obligatory caveat that the lower temps would only affect the UK (for some convoluted reason) and none of this in any way invalidated 'climate change' at all.

But it was out there. Someone is putting down a little marker. 'I wasn't taken in. I predicted the cooler temps you know, see I'm on the record saying so back in 2014'. Expect more of the same.

We've already had the politicians waking up to the fact raising energy prices isn't a vote winner (funny that!), and competing to try and reduce them. Of course they haven't made the big leap yet, but it won't take too much longer before someone does. I wouldn't be surprised to see UKIP grasp the nettle first. They have nothing to lose, the mainstream parties already paint them as nutters, why not go out there into territory the others won't touch but will get votes? 'Vote for us, we'll halve your gas bill' will resonate powerfully with people who couldn't give a rats *rse about climate politics but know their bills keep rising every year. It could be the policy that gets UKIP its first MP.

The dam is beginning to crack, and its just a matter of time before the rats are scurrying every which way to get out of the path of the deluge.

Nigel Sedgwick said...

In the featured plots, is no one concerned that the green straight line is clearly not a linear best fit (least square error or otherwise) to the red plot.

Best regards

James Higham said...

Young chap at my work, believes the Warble gloaming man made thing. Says the evidence points.

Didn't really know where to start.

A K Haart said...

Michael - yes, it is a market and it is being defended.

Sobers - I agree, the dam is beginning to crack and climate insiders will have seen it coming for a number of years.

Some may be waiting to see where global temperatures go next, others will have already prepared themselves for it going the "wrong" way. As you say, there are hints from the BBC that this is going on.

Nigel - the green line is described as a "trend" on the website. I see what you mean, but don't know how it is calculated.

It is only there to illustrate the problem as described in the post and certainly not intended to suggest global cooling has started because as far as I can see it hasn't.

James - warming was predicted and it isn't warming. That's it really.