Coronavirus - Not So Great Expectations

A common criticism of Boris Johnson’s handling of the coronavirus debacle is his lack of consistency, his supposed tendency to make U-turns. It is an odd criticism. The likely consequences of the coronavirus pandemic have been grotesquely exaggerated and much criticism of Mr Johnson seems to imply that his handling of it should have been grotesquely inflexible too.

Another curious aspect of the whole coronavirus mess is how willingly compliant many people seem to be, almost as if they relish the restrictions. Perhaps this is a clue as to why government response to the pandemic has been so far adrift from the risks, even though it soon became apparent that those risks have been wildly exaggerated.

We navigate through life by avoiding surprises. The coronavirus lockdown was an opportunity to reduce a whole range of popular expectations – economic, political, travel, lifestyle, freedom to choose and general freedoms. All these expectations were managed downwards by pandemic politics which has continued long after the UK epidemic disappeared round about mid June.

Politics is the art of the plausible and a major aspect of that is managing expectations down to a plausible floor. Manage expectations downwards and politically inconvenient ambitions are managed downwards too. 

Achieve that and failure can plausibly be presented as success.
Achieve that and discontent may be managed downwards too.
Achieve that and a supine political culture is almost assured.

Yet there is only sporadic protest at the draconian and wholly unwarranted treatment of a pandemic known to be no threat to millions of healthy people. There may be a number of reasons for this level of acceptance, but reducing expectations reduces surprises and we are programmed to avoid surprises.  

A moderate but heavily exaggerated pandemic was a political opportunity and it can hardly be a coincidence that it was taken up so ruthlessly. A unique opportunity to manage mass expectations downwards. A socialist dream came true - and Boris Johnson is a socialist.