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Friday, 26 May 2017

May be slipping

Elections Etc sees a diminishing likelihood of a Conservative landslide in the forthcoming general election.

Overall, our combined forecast of the Conservative majority has dropped to 100, down from 123 last week and from 132 two weeks ago.

The combined probability of a Conservative majority, at 87% has correspondingly taken a small dip from 91% last week. More strikingly the probability of a Conservative landslide (a 100+ seat majority) has fallen from 64% (and 71% two weeks ago) to just 34% this week.


Presumably the Tories do not welcome such news but it is not yet anything to worry about. There are times when I ask myself if they would welcome a result which encourages Jeremy Corbyn to cling on as leader after the election. Not that he seems to need much encouragement.  

5 comments:

Michael said...

Many years ago, I was studying statistics as part of a course.

I was hopeless at it, despite being a desperate learner, so I "conned by rote" all the equations, and hoped for the best...

Bugger me, on the day of the exam, the paper had all the equations printed out in full, right there, slap-bang at the beginning!

I passed the paper, but still have the book, which gets sneered at from time to time.

(By the way, 100 seats is enough to help my popcorn evening and night)!

James Higham said...

Well she's lost my vote anyway.

Roger said...

Apparently one reason for this election was to give May a bit more wriggle room. So any majority over 17 is a result, 100 may seem better. At best Corbyn may cut the 100 back to say 80. But who knows, she might end up with 30 or 120.

Another theory suggests that she wants to put off the succeeding election until after the Brexit alarums have subsided. More like putting off one's hanging.

Either way I can't see much happening until after the German elections in late September. Shades of summer 1939. Dust off the gramophone, 'There are bad times just around the corner. There are dark days looming up ahead. There are home fires smoking from Windermere to Woking' etc etc. Dear old Noel is due a revival.

Demetrius said...

Remember 1959 when Hugh Gaitskell was arranging his visit to The Palace when the polls opened.

A K Haart said...

Scrobs - although a 100 seat majority has begun to seem unlikely.

James - I'd prefer not to vote for May, but voting against Corbyn means voting for her.

Roger - if only the rats were preparing to leave the B.B.C.

Demetrius - I'd rather not.