Thursday, 29 November 2012

Outrageous claim

Climate isn’t weather we are told, but why? Surely climate is merely averaged weather, so what’s the reason for this mantra – climate is not weather. Why is it so important? Why does it crop up so frequently?

Think seasonal weather forecasts.

Climate forecasting grew out of weather forecasting, but everyone knows weather forecasting isn’t particularly accurate even over a few days. So climate forecasters have a problem. They don’t want their extreme long-range guesswork to be compared to weather forecasts, particularly seasonal forecasts.

Seasonal forecasts are too close to climate forecasts.

This high level of public familiarity with weather forecasts was always a serious weakness right at the heart of climate propaganda. Climate is not weather is an extraordinarily feeble mantra dreamed up to tackle it. Even now it crops up whenever this suppurating sore is probed.

Yet climate is obviously no more than averaged weather, so the comparison is worth making, if only to highlight how climate forecasters are merely playing political games. Seasonal forecasts are so dire, it isn’t difficult to work out that climate forecasts are not even guesses, but political aspirations.

Suppose UK weather forecasts are reasonably accurate over a five day period, which is what the Met Office seems happy enough to publish on its website. On the whole they aren’t particularly accurate over five days, but let’s give the dear old Met Office the benefit of the doubt.

Now take the game of darts. For darts matches, the face of a dartboard has to be 236.9cm from the face of oche. At this distance the game may be played with great skill by professional players and strong amateurs.

So suppose we draw an analogy between the game of darts and 30 year climate forecasts. A 30 year climate forecast compared to a 5 day weather forecast could be analogous to playing darts with the dartboard set up a little over 3 miles away from the oche.

An outrageous analogy? Of course it is – it’s an analogy of an outrageous claim.

Met Office to throw first... game on.


Mark Wadsworth said...

"weather forecasting isn’t particularly accurate even over a few days"

Well maybe not, but the one week forecasts you see on the telly are far, far better than twenty or thirty years ago, I'd give them at least 8/10 for accuracy, given that it's still largely guesswork. The Americans knew about a week in advance that Sandy would make that weird right turn and head west.

As to the dartboard analogy, well you can argue it both ways. While you cannot possibly predict where the next dart thrown by an average sort of player will land, you can generalise quite accurately about where the next thousand darts will land, how many will miss the board, how many bullseyes etc.

As to "climate is not weather" that is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. What on earth is climate then? Cheese? Those little screws in the back of a calculator? A three mile stretch of road connecting two villages?

PS, congrats for actually posting this at six in the morning!

Demetrius said...

Long ago I found one of the best ways to win a darts game was to do the scoring in Roman numerals. Perhaps if weather forecasting involved prayers to the ancient gods they might be better.

A K Haart said...

Mark - yes the Met Office is better than a few decades ago. Timing can be off, but the predicted weather tends to arrive.

I wish they hadn't tangled themselves in the climate game though.

Demetrius - ah but did people wise up to your Roman numerals trick?

Peter MacFarlane said...

"Weather isn't climate" is of course the warmists' way of saying it may be getting colder, but it's still getting hotter, we are always right, shut up, pay up, and don't argue.

A K Haart said...

Peter - I agree - they don't really want any in-depth questions simply because the claims don't make sense.