Wednesday, 3 February 2016

Future World Populations (2050)

Demographic projections tend to be worth making because to a significant degree, future populations have already been determined by today's births and birth rates tend not to be subject to sudden change. Immigration may be a complex and divisive issue, but at some point small developed countries such the UK may need to adopt much more selective immigration policies as a defence against population pressures.

It is easy enough to be sanguine about global population growth because the Earth probably is able to support the numbers whatever Malthusians may say. However, the risks are political rather than technical. Extreme situations tend to engender extreme reactions and global population growth is an extreme situation. Humans did not evolve within such massively dense populations.

However, on a lighter note it may not matter anyway because prominent climate expert Vivienne Westwood expects a population crash by the end of this century.

"[Fashion] just gives me an excuse to open my mouth. I have credibility from it, and I do use it," she added. "I don’t even talk about the fashion. Mass extinction, only one billion people left by the end of this century — how can you talk about fashion? You’ve got to talk about what we’re going to do."

Not helpful, but that's the perverse standard of debate we have to contend with. Back in the real world it may already be too late to be constructive about global population growth anyway. Unfortunately, the public domain is dominated by a highly active cult of cultural guilt. The cultural ideals and achievements of our collective past have become difficult to defend in a way which isn't isolating.

One is left with the view that too many prominent people in the UK either do not understand or do not care about the harsh realities of life, the need to value and defend what one has against those who would take or undermine it. It is a crude way to look at things, but stripped to its fundamentals life is crude.

In the long run wimps and incompetents do what they always do - they lose.


Anonymous said...

Earth may support the numbers, but under what political system? Perhaps Islam would be useful as a means of controlling the vast and rather poor masses. We might also go for cultural exchanges - a sort of useful in, not-useful out arrangement - market-driven of course. Genetically engineered 'events' might play a part - a rather accident-prone game. Now what did I do with that petri dish?

wiggiatlarge said...

Well of course should it come to pass Vivien Westwood will be part of the diminishing demographic as she wont be around, it also begs the question as to why she is currently expanding her empire if there will be no left to buy her wares.

Absolutely bats !

Sam Vega said...

You are right about the guilt. I guess it is related to the questioning and evaluating faculty which led to Western dominance. The big question is whether it is the logical conclusion to that ability - the enlightenment is historically programmed to eat itself; or whether it is the deformed offspring. Hopefully the latter. We certainly need to teach our young people to recognise and appreciate the good, before we teach them how to mindlessly criticise.

Demetrius said...

Actually, most of them will move to Hampstead and Highgate where they will live on benefits and vote Labour.

A K Haart said...

Roger - the global political system is the elephant in the room. Your comment about Islam is sobering.

Wiggia - yes she's a real fruitcake. Slightly scary that someone can be both successful and batty.

Sam - I think the enlightenment is already eating itself as it runs out of its more traditional diet.

Demetrius - and Jeremy is probably their ideal leader.

Weekend Yachtsman said...

She's got credibility from fashion?

"I make my living poncing about in posh frocks, you should listen to me on technical and political matters"


What world do these people live in?

A K Haart said...

WY - I wonder what world these people live in too. She's an obvious fruitcake but presumably her world goes along with fruitcakes.