It seems to me that we have turned a corner on climate change even if the lunacy rolls on. Many people now know that climate scientists cannot possibly forecast global temperatures decades into the future. Look at weather forecasts. The predicted catastrophes are pure fiction - always were.
Yes – for the political classes and senior global bureaucrats, fiction is the tool of choice. A fictitious narrative is much easier to promote than rational argument – harder to undermine too. Official fiction is fluid and adaptable with endlessly flexible storylines, subplots, dramas and even a covert sprinkling of impossibilities.
We see official fiction all the time, from tax policies to passive smoking, from fizzy death-drinks to housing policies. Official narratives are almost entirely fiction because fiction is elusive, malleable and it suits the backers.
Official fictions are easily spun into a tangle of storylines where the politicians themselves are the main characters and the central drama is not easily spoiled by a dose of reality shouted out by rude cynics sitting at the back. The performance may be panned by the critics, but who listens to them, darlings?
Climate change is unusual, because to their myopic surprise, a gaggle of third-rate scientists were recruited as main characters for a global production sponsored by the UN. It is also unusual in the sheer size of the audience. Millions middle class drama-lovers fully prepared to applaud the mad professors as they tried to strut their corduroy stuff on the global stage.
Initially that global audience swallowed the climate drama without demur, powerfully affected by the weepy, feelgood message behind ludicrous but gripping catastrophes. The villains of the piece were all rich too – how delightful! We like our fiction good and strong, but a dollop of finger-wagging makes even a Toyota Prius worthwhile.
This is why consensus was pushed so hard right from the start. 97% of climate scientists and all that. A powerful way to get the audience to suspend their disbelief and pay attention to the performance. They could even have a tiny role themselves by buying curly light bulbs, cycling to work and collecting rubbish.
Since climategate however, almost everyone who understands climate change knows the thing is a crock. The dramatic certainties once promoted with so much sanctimonious relish were not even likely, let alone settled science.
Yet many sad people still think the climate soap opera is real life because the storylines played on their sensibilities with such subtle success. Many still want to be on the side of righteousness whatever fictions they are required to swallow, however frequently their curly light bulbs fail to glow properly.
The play must go on - the backers insist.
It’s all very sad, because the drama never was real. It was and still is a badly acted UN scam. The problem we are left with is that it has all gone too far. Some have quietly backed off, but many can’t or won’t. Hoping for a green miracle, they doggedly keep faith with the warming storylines half-knowing them to be rather silly and a little dated.
What next? As far as I can see the play won’t close merely because part of the audience has wised up and the drama turned out to be a comedy of errors. The political narrative is too big, the backers too committed and this is surely a lesson in global governance.
Global stupidity is too big to unwind.
There is too much global investment in the climate drama, too many powerful vested interests, too much political kudos. The one positive is that it may be a salutary lesson for scientists offered a juicy role in the next piece of global fiction.
Or maybe there are too many drama-queen professors out there?