tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2481298417819219839.post5765567626323008963..comments2024-03-28T19:27:59.772+00:00Comments on A K Haart: Wood for treesA K Haarthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05897490979828603179noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2481298417819219839.post-28416388728815192712012-07-13T21:29:43.661+01:002012-07-13T21:29:43.661+01:00Roger - poke and hope sounds like a philosophy of ...Roger - poke and hope sounds like a philosophy of life to me. Especially these days!<br /><br />Sam - I agree and I think economics is in a far worse state than we tend to admit.<br /><br />Demetrius - Chaos Theory is scary and the scary aspect should be pushing us to make life simpler.A K Haarthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05897490979828603179noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2481298417819219839.post-14781559312128885812012-07-13T16:37:46.982+01:002012-07-13T16:37:46.982+01:00I think I'll just stick to Chaos Theory and Ge...I think I'll just stick to Chaos Theory and Geophysics in working out monetary economics.Demetriushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17198549581667363991noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2481298417819219839.post-17715124183135679532012-07-13T11:50:53.617+01:002012-07-13T11:50:53.617+01:00"One of the oddities about complex systems is..."One of the oddities about complex systems is the way we are much better at diagnosis after the event than we were at predicting the event beforehand."<br /><br />Twas ever thus, and it even applies to simple systems. Kierkegaard said:<br /><br />"Life can only be understood backwards, but it must be lived forwards".<br /><br />The trick is to live it with systems which are as reliable as we can get them; and not to rely on them too much under any circumstances. The problem with economics as a discipline is that it is tied into vested political interests, and so there is no real impetus to bury differences of terminology in favour of what we really know. If I suddenly realise that the terms I have been using are a pile of piss, I'm not going to admit I'm wrong if the consequences are the loss of my job and public opprobrium...Sam Vegahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05978971199859845931noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2481298417819219839.post-75097559034353606072012-07-13T08:35:19.786+01:002012-07-13T08:35:19.786+01:00Complex system - 'suck it and see' or '...Complex system - 'suck it and see' or 'poke and hope' are the usual approaches - a lot better than bottom-up analysis.<br /><br />So what's to do? Splash out on toy trains? Patch up and paint? I know, a nice little war somewhere, but one we are sure to lose. Think a bit of starvation at home, a blockade maybe and that's the lardies and the elderly fixed. A good bit of 'value destruction' can be followed by closure of the banks and long breadlines and the toppling of HMG, all debts written off.<br /><br />Alternatively we could earn lots more money - get a better job as it were. A massive education program - think Eton and <br />Cambridge as the low-end. Sadly the lead time is long and the global numbers are against us.<br /><br />Or lower expectations, oldies could to the decent thing and move into Alms-flats in return for handing over all wealth to <br />their kith and kin. Pensions capped at say £30K top whack for all. There is some justice here - inflation giveth and deflation taketh away.<br /><br />Too old and too expensive, that is the bottom line.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com